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Bembibre vs La Virgen del Camino — Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 2019

Bembibre
Bembibre
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
La Virgen del Camino
La Virgen del Camino
11/24/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 8Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 · Group 8 - 13Campo Municipal Jesús Esteban Rodríguez 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 110+ matches

Bembibre39%
×Draw28%
La Virgen del Camino33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bembibre
1.24
La Virgen del Camino
1.10

Bembibre creates 13% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 111 away

creates per match

Bembibre
1.05
La Virgen del Camino
1.05

allows per match

Bembibre
1.15
La Virgen del Camino
1.43

finishing

Bembibre+0.00on par
La Virgen del Camino+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bembibre ↓

La Virgen del Camino →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Bembibre or draw
67%
Bembibre or La Virgen del Camino
72%
Draw or La Virgen del Camino
61%

Winning margin

Bembibre wins by 2+
17%
La Virgen del Camino wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Bembibre 1+ goals
71%
Bembibre 2+ goals
35%
Bembibre 3+ goals
13%
La Virgen del Camino 1+ goals
67%
La Virgen del Camino 2+ goals
30%
La Virgen del Camino 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Bembibre (draw refunded)
55%
La Virgen del Camino (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bembibre at home — creates 1.05, concedes 1.15 · 110 matches

La Virgen del Camino away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.43 · 111 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bembibre attack 1.05 + La Virgen del Camino defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.24

La Virgen del Camino attack 1.05 + Bembibre defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Bembibre scores more
39%
level
28%
La Virgen del Camino scores more
33%

Bembibre at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Bembibre will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 8: Bembibre 0–0 La Virgen del Camino

Bembibre and La Virgen del Camino drew 0-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 on November 24, 2024.

The match was played at Campo Municipal Jesús Esteban Rodríguez 1 in Bembibre.