Bembibre 1–1 Cristo Atlético: Result & Stats

Bembibre

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Cristo Atlético

Alejandro Vargas 72'

Rubo Blanco 37'

3/23/2025

Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 · Group 8 - 29Campo Municipal Jesús Esteban Rodríguez 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 80+ matches

Bembibre30%

×Draw28%

Cristo Atlético42%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BembibreExpected goals in this matchCristo Atlético

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.00

1.25

Bembibre

1.00

Cristo Atlético

1.25

Cristo Atlético creates 25% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 80 away

1.05

creates per match

1.36

1.15

allows per match

0.95

creates per match

Bembibre

1.05

Cristo Atlético

1.36

allows per match

Bembibre

1.15

Cristo Atlético

0.95

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bembibre+0.00on par

Cristo Atlético+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bembibre ↓

Cristo Atlético →

0–011%

0–113%

0–28%

0–33%

0–41%

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2–05%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

66%34%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Bembibre or draw

58%

Bembibre or Cristo Atlético

72%

Draw or Cristo Atlético

70%

Winning margin

Bembibre wins by 2+

11%

Cristo Atlético wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Bembibre 1+ goals

63%

Bembibre 2+ goals

26%

Bembibre 3+ goals

Cristo Atlético 1+ goals

71%

Cristo Atlético 2+ goals

36%

Cristo Atlético 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Bembibre (draw refunded)

41%

Cristo Atlético (draw refunded)

59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Bembibre at home — creates 1.05, concedes 1.15 · 110 matches

Cristo Atlético away — creates 1.36, concedes 0.95 · 80 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Bembibre attack 1.05 + Cristo Atlético defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.00

Cristo Atlético attack 1.36 + Bembibre defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 42%?"

Bembibre scores more

30%

level

28%

Cristo Atlético scores more

42%

Cristo Atlético at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Cristo Atlético will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

37'

Rubo Blanco

60'

Israel González← Javi García

66'

Daniel Rodríguez← Ivi

68'

Alejandro Vargas← Davo Lorenzo

72'

Alejandro Vargas

76'

Guayo← Íñigo Astudillo

76'

Apa← Javier Navarro

77'

Iker Nova← Iván Tato

87'

Charly← Rubo Blanco

87'

Miguel Cisneros← César Gutiérrez

Bembibre

Cristo

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Manolo Perez

60'▲Israel González←▼Javi García

68'▲Alejandro Vargas←▼Davo Lorenzo

77'▲Iker Nova←▼Iván Tato

Bembibre substitutes

GonzálezVargasNova

Manager: Álex Izquierdo

66'▲Daniel Rodríguez←▼Ivi

76'▲Guayo←▼Íñigo Astudillo

76'▲Apa←▼Javier Navarro

87'▲Charly←▼Rubo Blanco

87'▲Miguel Cisneros←▼César Gutiérrez

Cristo Atlético substitutes

RodríguezGuayoApaCharlyCisneros