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Bembibre vs Ciudad Rodrigo — Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 2019

Bembibre
Bembibre
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Ciudad Rodrigo
Ciudad Rodrigo
10/19/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 8Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 · Group 8 - 7Campo Municipal Jesús Esteban Rodríguez 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Bembibre51%
×Draw26%
Ciudad Rodrigo23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bembibre
1.52
Ciudad Rodrigo
0.94

Bembibre creates 62% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 34 away

creates per match

Bembibre
1.05
Ciudad Rodrigo
0.74

allows per match

Bembibre
1.15
Ciudad Rodrigo
2.00

finishing

Bembibre+0.00on par
Ciudad Rodrigo+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bembibre ↓

Ciudad Rodrigo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
45%55%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Bembibre or draw
77%
Bembibre or Ciudad Rodrigo
74%
Draw or Ciudad Rodrigo
49%

Winning margin

Bembibre wins by 2+
26%
Ciudad Rodrigo wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Bembibre 1+ goals
78%
Bembibre 2+ goals
45%
Bembibre 3+ goals
20%
Ciudad Rodrigo 1+ goals
61%
Ciudad Rodrigo 2+ goals
24%
Ciudad Rodrigo 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Bembibre (draw refunded)
68%
Ciudad Rodrigo (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bembibre at home — creates 1.05, concedes 1.15 · 110 matches

Ciudad Rodrigo away — creates 0.74, concedes 2.00 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bembibre attack 1.05 + Ciudad Rodrigo defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.52

Ciudad Rodrigo attack 0.74 + Bembibre defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Bembibre scores more
51%
level
26%
Ciudad Rodrigo scores more
23%

Bembibre at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Bembibre will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Bembibre vs Ciudad Rodrigo

Bembibre beat Ciudad Rodrigo 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 on October 19, 2024.

The match was played at Campo Municipal Jesús Esteban Rodríguez 1 in Bembibre.