Bembibre 0–0 Atlético Astorga: Result & Stats

Bembibre

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Atlético Astorga

11/19/2023

Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 · Group 8 - 11Campo Municipal Jesús Esteban Rodríguez 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 93+ matches

Bembibre29%

×Draw29%

Atlético Astorga42%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BembibreExpected goals in this matchAtlético Astorga

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.97

1.21

Bembibre

0.97

Atlético Astorga

1.21

Atlético Astorga creates 25% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 93 away

1.05

creates per match

1.27

1.15

allows per match

0.89

creates per match

Bembibre

1.05

Atlético Astorga

1.27

allows per match

Bembibre

1.15

Atlético Astorga

0.89

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bembibre+0.00on par

Atlético Astorga+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bembibre ↓

Atlético Astorga →

0–011%

0–114%

0–28%

0–33%

0–41%

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2–05%

2–16%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Bembibre or draw

58%

Bembibre or Atlético Astorga

71%

Draw or Atlético Astorga

71%

Winning margin

Bembibre wins by 2+

11%

Atlético Astorga wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Bembibre 1+ goals

62%

Bembibre 2+ goals

25%

Bembibre 3+ goals

Atlético Astorga 1+ goals

70%

Atlético Astorga 2+ goals

34%

Atlético Astorga 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Bembibre (draw refunded)

41%

Atlético Astorga (draw refunded)

59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Bembibre at home — creates 1.05, concedes 1.15 · 110 matches

Atlético Astorga away — creates 1.27, concedes 0.89 · 93 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Bembibre attack 1.05 + Atlético Astorga defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.97

Atlético Astorga attack 1.27 + Bembibre defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 42%?"

Bembibre scores more

29%

level

29%

Atlético Astorga scores more

42%

Atlético Astorga at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Atlético Astorga will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Bembibre vs Atlético Astorga

Bembibre and Atlético Astorga drew 0-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 on November 19, 2023.

The match was played at Campo Municipal Jesús Esteban Rodríguez 1 in Bembibre.

Bembibre vs Atlético Astorga — Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Match Recap: Bembibre vs Atlético Astorga