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Beluša vs Slovan Levice — 3. liga - West 2020

Beluša
Beluša
FT
4 – 0
Slovan Levice
Slovan Levice
8/22/20213. liga - West3. liga - West · West - 3Štadión TJ Kovo Beluša

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Beluša77%
×Draw14%
Slovan Levice8%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Beluša
2.67
Slovan Levice
0.77

Beluša creates 247% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 17 away

creates per match

Beluša
1.98
Slovan Levice
0.47

allows per match

Beluša
1.06
Slovan Levice
3.35

finishing

Beluša+0.00on par
Slovan Levice+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Beluša ↓

Slovan Levice →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–17%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–07%
4–15%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Beluša or draw
92%
Beluša or Slovan Levice
86%
Draw or Slovan Levice
23%

Winning margin

Beluša wins by 2+
56%
Slovan Levice wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Beluša 1+ goals
93%
Beluša 2+ goals
74%
Beluša 3+ goals
49%
Slovan Levice 1+ goals
54%
Slovan Levice 2+ goals
18%
Slovan Levice 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Beluša (draw refunded)
90%
Slovan Levice (draw refunded)
10%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Beluša at home — creates 1.98, concedes 1.06 · 85 matches

Slovan Levice away — creates 0.47, concedes 3.35 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Beluša attack 1.98 + Slovan Levice defence 3.35 → ÷2 → 2.67

Slovan Levice attack 0.47 + Beluša defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 0.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 77%?"

Beluša scores more
77%
level
14%
Slovan Levice scores more
8%

Beluša at 77% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 77% does not mean "Beluša will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Beluša vs Slovan Levice

Beluša beat Slovan Levice 4-0 in 3. liga - West on August 22, 2021.

The match was played at Štadión TJ Kovo Beluša in Beluša.