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Beluša vs Marcelová — 3. liga - West 2020

Beluša
Beluša
FT
2 – 1
Marcelová
Marcelová
10/17/20213. liga - West3. liga - West · West - 11Štadión TJ Kovo Beluša

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Beluša56%
×Draw22%
Marcelová22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Beluša
2.01
Marcelová
1.18

Beluša creates 70% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 24 away

creates per match

Beluša
1.98
Marcelová
1.29

allows per match

Beluša
1.06
Marcelová
2.04

finishing

Beluša+0.00on par
Marcelová+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Beluša ↓

Marcelová →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Beluša or draw
78%
Beluša or Marcelová
78%
Draw or Marcelová
44%

Winning margin

Beluša wins by 2+
33%
Marcelová wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Beluša 1+ goals
87%
Beluša 2+ goals
59%
Beluša 3+ goals
32%
Marcelová 1+ goals
69%
Marcelová 2+ goals
33%
Marcelová 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Beluša (draw refunded)
72%
Marcelová (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Beluša at home — creates 1.98, concedes 1.06 · 85 matches

Marcelová away — creates 1.29, concedes 2.04 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Beluša attack 1.98 + Marcelová defence 2.04 → ÷2 → 2.01

Marcelová attack 1.29 + Beluša defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Beluša scores more
56%
level
22%
Marcelová scores more
22%

Beluša at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Beluša will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. liga - West: Beluša 2–1 Marcelová

Beluša beat Marcelová 2-1 in 3. liga - West on October 17, 2021.

The match was played at Štadión TJ Kovo Beluša in Beluša.