Beluša 0–1 Lokomotíva Zvolen: Result & Stats

Beluša

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Lokomotíva Zvolen

3/10/2024

3. liga - West · West - 17Štadión TJ Kovo Beluša

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Beluša44%

×Draw26%

Lokomotíva Zvolen31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BelušaExpected goals in this matchLokomotíva Zvolen

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.49

1.20

Beluša

1.49

Lokomotíva Zvolen

1.20

Beluša creates 24% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 15 away

1.98

creates per match

1.33

1.06

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Beluša

1.98

Lokomotíva Zvolen

1.33

allows per match

Beluša

1.06

Lokomotíva Zvolen

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Beluša+0.00on par

Lokomotíva Zvolen+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Beluša ↓

Lokomotíva Zvolen →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Beluša or draw

69%

Beluša or Lokomotíva Zvolen

74%

Draw or Lokomotíva Zvolen

56%

Winning margin

Beluša wins by 2+

22%

Lokomotíva Zvolen wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Beluša 1+ goals

77%

Beluša 2+ goals

44%

Beluša 3+ goals

19%

Lokomotíva Zvolen 1+ goals

70%

Lokomotíva Zvolen 2+ goals

34%

Lokomotíva Zvolen 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Beluša (draw refunded)

59%

Lokomotíva Zvolen (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Beluša at home — creates 1.98, concedes 1.06 · 85 matches

Lokomotíva Zvolen away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.00 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Beluša attack 1.98 + Lokomotíva Zvolen defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.49

Lokomotíva Zvolen attack 1.33 + Beluša defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Beluša scores more

44%

level

26%

Lokomotíva Zvolen scores more

31%

Beluša at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Beluša will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff