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Beluša vs Kalná nad Hronom — 3. liga - West 2020

Beluša
Beluša
CANC
14:30
Kalná nad Hronom
Kalná nad Hronom
5/9/20213. liga - West3. liga - West · West - 24Štadión TJ Kovo Beluša

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Beluša54%
×Draw23%
Kalná nad Hronom23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Beluša
1.79
Kalná nad Hronom
1.08

Beluša creates 66% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 31 away

creates per match

Beluša
1.98
Kalná nad Hronom
1.10

allows per match

Beluša
1.06
Kalná nad Hronom
1.61

finishing

Beluša+0.00on par
Kalná nad Hronom+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Beluša ↓

Kalná nad Hronom →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Beluša or draw
77%
Beluša or Kalná nad Hronom
77%
Draw or Kalná nad Hronom
46%

Winning margin

Beluša wins by 2+
30%
Kalná nad Hronom wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Beluša 1+ goals
83%
Beluša 2+ goals
53%
Beluša 3+ goals
26%
Kalná nad Hronom 1+ goals
66%
Kalná nad Hronom 2+ goals
29%
Kalná nad Hronom 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Beluša (draw refunded)
70%
Kalná nad Hronom (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Beluša at home — creates 1.98, concedes 1.06 · 85 matches

Kalná nad Hronom away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.61 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Beluša attack 1.98 + Kalná nad Hronom defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.79

Kalná nad Hronom attack 1.10 + Beluša defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Beluša scores more
54%
level
23%
Kalná nad Hronom scores more
23%

Beluša at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Beluša will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Beluša vs Kalná nad Hronom — Match Preview

Beluša face Kalná nad Hronom on May 9, 2021 in this 3. liga - West fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Beluša host Kalná nad Hronom at Štadión TJ Kovo Beluša.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.