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Beluša vs Imeľ — 3. liga - West 2020

Beluša
Beluša
FT
4 – 3
HT: 2 – 2
Imeľ
Imeľ
2/26/20223. liga - West3. liga - West · West - 13UMT Dubnica nad Váhom

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Beluša59%
×Draw23%
Imeľ18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Beluša
1.81
Imeľ
0.87

Beluša creates 108% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 25 away

creates per match

Beluša
1.98
Imeľ
0.68

allows per match

Beluša
1.06
Imeľ
1.64

finishing

Beluša+0.00on par
Imeľ+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Beluša ↓

Imeľ →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Beluša or draw
82%
Beluša or Imeľ
77%
Draw or Imeľ
41%

Winning margin

Beluša wins by 2+
34%
Imeľ wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Beluša 1+ goals
84%
Beluša 2+ goals
54%
Beluša 3+ goals
27%
Imeľ 1+ goals
58%
Imeľ 2+ goals
22%
Imeľ 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Beluša (draw refunded)
77%
Imeľ (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Beluša at home — creates 1.98, concedes 1.06 · 85 matches

Imeľ away — creates 0.68, concedes 1.64 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Beluša attack 1.98 + Imeľ defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.81

Imeľ attack 0.68 + Beluša defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 0.87

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Beluša scores more
59%
level
23%
Imeľ scores more
18%

Beluša at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Beluša will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. liga - West: Beluša 4–3 Imeľ

Beluša beat Imeľ 4-3 in 3. liga - West on February 26, 2022.

The match was played at UMT Dubnica nad Váhom in Dubnica nad Váhom.