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Beltinci vs Tolmin — 2. SNL 2019

Beltinci
Beltinci
FT
2 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Tolmin
Tolmin
10/5/20242. SNL2. SNL · Round 9Športni park Beltinci pomožno igrišče

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Beltinci53%
×Draw24%
Tolmin23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Beltinci
1.73
Tolmin
1.07

Beltinci creates 62% more chances

Season form · 97 home / 30 away

creates per match

Beltinci
1.55
Tolmin
0.83

allows per match

Beltinci
1.31
Tolmin
1.90

finishing

Beltinci+0.00on par
Tolmin+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Beltinci ↓

Tolmin →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Beltinci or draw
77%
Beltinci or Tolmin
76%
Draw or Tolmin
47%

Winning margin

Beltinci wins by 2+
29%
Tolmin wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Beltinci 1+ goals
82%
Beltinci 2+ goals
52%
Beltinci 3+ goals
25%
Tolmin 1+ goals
66%
Tolmin 2+ goals
29%
Tolmin 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Beltinci (draw refunded)
69%
Tolmin (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Beltinci at home — creates 1.55, concedes 1.31 · 97 matches

Tolmin away — creates 0.83, concedes 1.90 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Beltinci attack 1.55 + Tolmin defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 1.73

Tolmin attack 0.83 + Beltinci defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Beltinci scores more
53%
level
24%
Tolmin scores more
23%

Beltinci at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Beltinci will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

2. SNL: Beltinci 2–0 Tolmin

Beltinci beat Tolmin 2-0 in 2. SNL on October 5, 2024.

The match was played at Športni park Beltinci pomožno igrišče in Beltinci.