Beltinci 2–1 Rogaška: Result & Stats | 2. SNL

Beltinci

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Rogaška

G. Grobelnik 90+3'

L. Marič 12'

J. Kodelič 89'

4/24/2022

2. SNL · Round 26Športni park Beltinci

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 41+ matches

Beltinci45%

×Draw25%

Rogaška31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BeltinciExpected goals in this matchRogaška

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.60

1.29

Beltinci

1.60

Rogaška

1.29

Beltinci creates 24% more chances

Season form · 95 home / 41 away

1.57

creates per match

1.32

1.27

allows per match

1.63

creates per match

Beltinci

1.57

Rogaška

1.32

allows per match

Beltinci

1.27

Rogaška

1.63

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Beltinci+0.00on par

Rogaška+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Beltinci ↓

Rogaška →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Beltinci or draw

69%

Beltinci or Rogaška

75%

Draw or Rogaška

55%

Winning margin

Beltinci wins by 2+

23%

Rogaška wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Beltinci 1+ goals

80%

Beltinci 2+ goals

47%

Beltinci 3+ goals

22%

Rogaška 1+ goals

72%

Rogaška 2+ goals

37%

Rogaška 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Beltinci (draw refunded)

59%

Rogaška (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Beltinci at home — creates 1.57, concedes 1.27 · 95 matches

Rogaška away — creates 1.32, concedes 1.63 · 41 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Beltinci attack 1.57 + Rogaška defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.60

Rogaška attack 1.32 + Beltinci defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Beltinci scores more

45%

level

25%

Rogaška scores more

31%

Beltinci at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Beltinci will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

12'

L. Marič

46'

V. Morec← T. Debelak

60'

G. Grobelnik← S. Džumhur

60'

P. Raduha← L. Pihler

72'

M. Maučec← L. Štravs

75'

F. Kožarić← Thalisson Charles

75'

V. Sedej← T. Gobec

79'

J. Kodelič← N. Gradišar

89'

J. Kodelič

90+3'

G. Grobelnik

Beltinci

Rogaška

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

Manager: D. Gajser

46'▲V. Morec←▼T. Debelak

60'▲G. Grobelnik←▼S. Džumhur

60'▲P. Raduha←▼L. Pihler

72'▲M. Maučec←▼L. Štravs

Beltinci substitutes

MorecGrobelnikRaduhaMaučecZverRantašaHartman

Manager: J. Arsić

75'▲F. Kožarić←▼Thalisson Charles

75'▲V. Sedej←▼T. Gobec

79'▲J. Kodelič←▼N. Gradišar

Rogaška substitutes

KožarićSedejKodeličLojenGajsterGajšekKrivecHernavs

2. SNL: Beltinci 2–1 Rogaška

Beltinci beat Rogaška 2-1 in 2. SNL on April 24, 2022.

Goals: L. Marič (12'), J. Kodelič (89'), G. Grobelnik (90+3').

The match was played at Športni park Beltinci in Beltinci.

Beltinci vs Rogaška — 2. SNL 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

2. SNL: Beltinci 2–1 Rogaška