Beltinci 1–1 Krško: Result & Stats | 2. SNL

Beltinci

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Krško

K. Mlakar 77'

Unknown 38'

4/10/2026

2. SNL · Round 23

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 66+ matches

Beltinci50%

×Draw24%

Krško26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BeltinciExpected goals in this matchKrško

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.69

1.16

Beltinci

1.69

Krško

1.16

Beltinci creates 46% more chances

Season form · 95 home / 66 away

1.57

creates per match

1.05

1.27

allows per match

1.80

creates per match

Beltinci

1.57

Krško

1.05

allows per match

Beltinci

1.27

Krško

1.80

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Beltinci+0.00on par

Krško+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Beltinci ↓

Krško →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Beltinci or draw

74%

Beltinci or Krško

76%

Draw or Krško

50%

Winning margin

Beltinci wins by 2+

27%

Krško wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Beltinci 1+ goals

82%

Beltinci 2+ goals

50%

Beltinci 3+ goals

24%

Krško 1+ goals

69%

Krško 2+ goals

32%

Krško 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Beltinci (draw refunded)

65%

Krško (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Beltinci at home — creates 1.57, concedes 1.27 · 95 matches

Krško away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.80 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Beltinci attack 1.57 + Krško defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.69

Krško attack 1.05 + Beltinci defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Beltinci scores more

50%

level

24%

Krško scores more

26%

Beltinci at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Beltinci will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

38'

77'

K. Mlakar

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff