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Beltinci vs Dekani — 2. SNL 2019

Beltinci
Beltinci
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Dekani
Dekani
M. Bajraj 82'
S. Akinremi 24'
4/25/20262. SNL2. SNL · Round 25

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 95+ matches

Beltinci49%
×Draw25%
Dekani26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Beltinci
1.61
Dekani
1.10

Beltinci creates 46% more chances

Season form · 95 home / 96 away

creates per match

Beltinci
1.57
Dekani
0.93

allows per match

Beltinci
1.27
Dekani
1.66

finishing

Beltinci+0.00on par
Dekani+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Beltinci ↓

Dekani →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Beltinci or draw
74%
Beltinci or Dekani
75%
Draw or Dekani
51%

Winning margin

Beltinci wins by 2+
26%
Dekani wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Beltinci 1+ goals
80%
Beltinci 2+ goals
48%
Beltinci 3+ goals
22%
Dekani 1+ goals
67%
Dekani 2+ goals
30%
Dekani 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Beltinci (draw refunded)
65%
Dekani (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Beltinci at home — creates 1.57, concedes 1.27 · 95 matches

Dekani away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.66 · 96 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Beltinci attack 1.57 + Dekani defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.61

Dekani attack 0.93 + Beltinci defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Beltinci scores more
49%
level
25%
Dekani scores more
26%

Beltinci at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Beltinci will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

24'
S. Akinremi
82'
M. Bajraj

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Beltinci vs Dekani

Beltinci beat Dekani 2-0 in 2. SNL on April 25, 2026.

Goals: S. Akinremi (24'), M. Bajraj (82').