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Beltinci vs Brinje-Grosuplje — 2. SNL 2019

Beltinci
Beltinci
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Brinje-Grosuplje
Brinje-Grosuplje
3/10/20242. SNL2. SNL · Round 20Športni park Beltinci

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Beltinci34%
×Draw24%
Brinje-Grosuplje42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Beltinci
1.39
Brinje-Grosuplje
1.56

Brinje-Grosuplje creates 12% more chances

Season form · 97 home / 60 away

creates per match

Beltinci
1.55
Brinje-Grosuplje
1.80

allows per match

Beltinci
1.31
Brinje-Grosuplje
1.22

finishing

Beltinci+0.00on par
Brinje-Grosuplje+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Beltinci ↓

Brinje-Grosuplje →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Beltinci or draw
58%
Beltinci or Brinje-Grosuplje
76%
Draw or Brinje-Grosuplje
66%

Winning margin

Beltinci wins by 2+
15%
Brinje-Grosuplje wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Beltinci 1+ goals
75%
Beltinci 2+ goals
40%
Beltinci 3+ goals
16%
Brinje-Grosuplje 1+ goals
79%
Brinje-Grosuplje 2+ goals
46%
Brinje-Grosuplje 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Beltinci (draw refunded)
45%
Brinje-Grosuplje (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Beltinci at home — creates 1.55, concedes 1.31 · 97 matches

Brinje-Grosuplje away — creates 1.80, concedes 1.22 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Beltinci attack 1.55 + Brinje-Grosuplje defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.39

Brinje-Grosuplje attack 1.80 + Beltinci defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Beltinci scores more
34%
level
24%
Brinje-Grosuplje scores more
42%

Brinje-Grosuplje at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Brinje-Grosuplje will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Beltinci vs Brinje-Grosuplje

Beltinci and Brinje-Grosuplje drew 1-1 in 2. SNL on March 10, 2024.

The match was played at Športni park Beltinci in Beltinci.