Beltinci 1–1 Brda Dobrovo: Result & Stats | 2. SNL

Beltinci

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Brda Dobrovo

M. Mauko 90+1'

A. Marinič 90'

4/24/2021

2. SNL · Relegation Round - 1Športni park Beltinci

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Beltinci56%

×Draw22%

Brda Dobrovo22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BeltinciExpected goals in this matchBrda Dobrovo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.94

1.14

Beltinci

1.94

Brda Dobrovo

1.14

Beltinci creates 70% more chances

Season form · 95 home / 23 away

1.57

creates per match

1.00

1.27

allows per match

2.30

creates per match

Beltinci

1.57

Brda Dobrovo

1.00

allows per match

Beltinci

1.27

Brda Dobrovo

2.30

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Beltinci+0.00on par

Brda Dobrovo+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Beltinci ↓

Brda Dobrovo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–110%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Beltinci or draw

78%

Beltinci or Brda Dobrovo

78%

Draw or Brda Dobrovo

44%

Winning margin

Beltinci wins by 2+

33%

Brda Dobrovo wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Beltinci 1+ goals

86%

Beltinci 2+ goals

58%

Beltinci 3+ goals

30%

Brda Dobrovo 1+ goals

68%

Brda Dobrovo 2+ goals

32%

Brda Dobrovo 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Beltinci (draw refunded)

72%

Brda Dobrovo (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Beltinci at home — creates 1.57, concedes 1.27 · 95 matches

Brda Dobrovo away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.30 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Beltinci attack 1.57 + Brda Dobrovo defence 2.30 → ÷2 → 1.94

Brda Dobrovo attack 1.00 + Beltinci defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Beltinci scores more

56%

level

22%

Brda Dobrovo scores more

22%

Beltinci at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Beltinci will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

14'

V. Morec← M. Maučec

79'

I. Balažic← I. Kuzma

79'

J. Katuša← P. Raduha

80'

Jaka Bužinel← T. Vodeb

80'

M. Battaino← Jure Bužinel

90'

A. Marinič

90+1'

M. Mauko

Beltinci

Brda

▼

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

Manager: R. Karanović

14'▲V. Morec←▼M. Maučec

79'▲I. Balažic←▼I. Kuzma

79'▲J. Katuša←▼P. Raduha

Beltinci substitutes

MorecBalažicKatušaSerecDobajKlobasaHartman

Manager: D. Jerončič

80'▲Jaka Bužinel←▼T. Vodeb

80'▲M. Battaino←▼Jure Bužinel

Brda Dobrovo substitutes

BužinelBattainoKarabegovićMedveščekPetrovčičLukić