Beltinci 1–3 Bistrica: Result & Stats | 2. SNL

Beltinci

FT

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Bistrica

D. Ikenna 63'

M. Kamenšek-Pahič 81' (OG)

S. Krapukhin 48'

R. Frešer 28'

3/15/2025

2. SNL · Round 19Športni park Beltinci

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Beltinci43%

×Draw25%

Bistrica32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BeltinciExpected goals in this matchBistrica

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

1.29

Beltinci

1.52

Bistrica

1.29

Beltinci creates 18% more chances

Season form · 95 home / 60 away

1.57

creates per match

1.30

1.27

allows per match

1.48

creates per match

Beltinci

1.57

Bistrica

1.30

allows per match

Beltinci

1.27

Bistrica

1.48

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Beltinci+0.00on par

Bistrica+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Beltinci ↓

Bistrica →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Beltinci or draw

68%

Beltinci or Bistrica

75%

Draw or Bistrica

57%

Winning margin

Beltinci wins by 2+

21%

Bistrica wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Beltinci 1+ goals

78%

Beltinci 2+ goals

45%

Beltinci 3+ goals

20%

Bistrica 1+ goals

72%

Bistrica 2+ goals

37%

Bistrica 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Beltinci (draw refunded)

57%

Bistrica (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Beltinci at home — creates 1.57, concedes 1.27 · 95 matches

Bistrica away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.48 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Beltinci attack 1.57 + Bistrica defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.52

Bistrica attack 1.30 + Beltinci defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Beltinci scores more

43%

level

25%

Bistrica scores more

32%

Beltinci at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Beltinci will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

28'

R. Frešer

46'

M. Bajraj← C. Cener

48'

S. Krapukhin

57'

A. Jelovica← L. Sočič

57'

D. Drk← J. Majcen

63'

B. Horvat← A. Dukarić

63'

68'

78'

78'

81'

M. Kamenšek-PahičOwn goal

85'

M. Tavares← D. Brumec

Beltinci

Bistrica

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

🥅

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Manager: S. Dvoršak

46'▲M. Bajraj←▼C. Cener

57'▲A. Jelovica←▼L. Sočič

57'▲D. Drk←▼J. Majcen

68'▲N. Osterc←▼J. Štimac

Beltinci substitutes

BajrajJelovicaDrkOstercEmruliZverBezjakGrajBagola

Manager: R. Pevnik

63'▲B. Horvat←▼A. Dukarić

78'▲A. Rec←▼A. Bukovec

78'▲M. Kobal←▼J. Jelen

85'▲M. Tavares←▼D. Brumec

Bistrica substitutes

HorvatRecKobalTavaresKapunFridrihŠkergetMijošek