Beltinci 1–3 Bilje: Result & Stats | 2. SNL

Beltinci

FT

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 2

Bilje

M. Bajraj 79'

A. Marc 76', 38'

M. A. Pijaza 39'

5/16/2026

2. SNL · Round 29

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 95+ matches

Beltinci48%

×Draw24%

Bilje28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BeltinciExpected goals in this matchBilje

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.71

1.25

Beltinci

1.71

Bilje

1.25

Beltinci creates 37% more chances

Season form · 95 home / 95 away

1.57

creates per match

1.24

1.27

allows per match

1.85

creates per match

Beltinci

1.57

Bilje

1.24

allows per match

Beltinci

1.27

Bilje

1.85

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Beltinci+0.00on par

Bilje+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Beltinci ↓

Bilje →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

57%43%3.5

34%66%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Beltinci or draw

72%

Beltinci or Bilje

76%

Draw or Bilje

52%

Winning margin

Beltinci wins by 2+

26%

Bilje wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Beltinci 1+ goals

82%

Beltinci 2+ goals

51%

Beltinci 3+ goals

24%

Bilje 1+ goals

71%

Bilje 2+ goals

36%

Bilje 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Beltinci (draw refunded)

63%

Bilje (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Beltinci at home — creates 1.57, concedes 1.27 · 95 matches

Bilje away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.85 · 95 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Beltinci attack 1.57 + Bilje defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.71

Bilje attack 1.24 + Beltinci defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Beltinci scores more

48%

level

24%

Bilje scores more

28%

Beltinci at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Beltinci will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

38'

A. Marc

39'

M. A. Pijaza

76'

A. Marc

79'

M. Bajraj

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff