Belshina 1–1 Smolevichi-Sti: Result & Stats

Belshina

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Smolevichi-Sti

S. Glebko 80' (pen)

E. Barsukov 90' (pen)

4/17/2020

Premier League · Round 5Stadyen Spartak

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Belshina39%

×Draw26%

Smolevichi-Sti35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 584,459 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BelshinaExpected goals in this matchSmolevichi-Sti

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.35

1.27

Belshina

1.35

Smolevichi-Sti

1.27

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 52 home / 28 away

0.96

creates per match

0.61

1.94

allows per match

1.75

creates per match

Belshina

0.96

Smolevichi-Sti

0.61

allows per match

Belshina

1.94

Smolevichi-Sti

1.75

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Belshina+0.00on par

Smolevichi-Sti+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Belshina ↓

Smolevichi-Sti →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Belshina or draw

65%

Belshina or Smolevichi-Sti

74%

Draw or Smolevichi-Sti

61%

Winning margin

Belshina wins by 2+

18%

Smolevichi-Sti wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Belshina 1+ goals

74%

Belshina 2+ goals

39%

Belshina 3+ goals

15%

Smolevichi-Sti 1+ goals

72%

Smolevichi-Sti 2+ goals

36%

Smolevichi-Sti 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Belshina (draw refunded)

53%

Smolevichi-Sti (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Belshina at home — creates 0.96, concedes 1.94 · 52 matches

Smolevichi-Sti away — creates 0.61, concedes 1.75 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Belshina attack 0.96 + Smolevichi-Sti defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.35

Smolevichi-Sti attack 0.61 + Belshina defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Belshina scores more

39%

level

26%

Smolevichi-Sti scores more

35%

Belshina at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Belshina will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

16'

Aleksey Vakulich

40'

Pavel Bordukov

44'

Alexander Dzhigero

56'

A. Makarov← A. Dzhigero

63'

V. Mukhamedov← A. Vakulich

71'

K. Kotov← J. Poé

73'

Ivan Veras

75'

Mikhail Bashilov

77'

A. Bezhonov← E. Skoblikov

79'

Anatoli Makarov

80'

S. GlebkoPenalty

88'

Arseni Bondarenko

90'

Samuel Odeyobo

90'

Ilya Rashchenya

90+2'

A. Novik← K. Malyarov

90+5'

M. Grek← S. Glebko

90'

E. BarsukovPenalty

Possession

Shots

Statistics

BelshinaSmolevichi-Sti

Overview

45%Possession55%

9Total Shots7

1Corners3

28Fouls33

Shots

9Total Shots7

2On Target6

7Off Target1

Passing

45%Possession55%

Goalkeeping

5Saves1

Discipline

28Fouls33

3Yellow Cards6

0Red Cards0

3Offsides0