Belshina 1–0 Shakhtyor Petrikov: Result & Stats

Belshina

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Shakhtyor Petrikov

10/20/2024

1. Division · Round 29Stadyen Spartak

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 62+ matches

Belshina55%

×Draw22%

Shakhtyor Petrikov23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BelshinaExpected goals in this matchShakhtyor Petrikov

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.02

1.23

Belshina

2.02

Shakhtyor Petrikov

1.23

Belshina creates 64% more chances

Season form · 79 home / 62 away

2.35

creates per match

1.53

0.92

allows per match

1.68

creates per match

Belshina

2.35

Shakhtyor Petrikov

1.53

allows per match

Belshina

0.92

Shakhtyor Petrikov

1.68

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Belshina+0.00on par

Shakhtyor Petrikov+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Belshina ↓

Shakhtyor Petrikov →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

63%37%3.5

41%59%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Belshina or draw

77%

Belshina or Shakhtyor Petrikov

78%

Draw or Shakhtyor Petrikov

45%

Winning margin

Belshina wins by 2+

33%

Shakhtyor Petrikov wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Belshina 1+ goals

87%

Belshina 2+ goals

60%

Belshina 3+ goals

33%

Shakhtyor Petrikov 1+ goals

71%

Shakhtyor Petrikov 2+ goals

35%

Shakhtyor Petrikov 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Belshina (draw refunded)

71%

Shakhtyor Petrikov (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Belshina at home — creates 2.35, concedes 0.92 · 79 matches

Shakhtyor Petrikov away — creates 1.53, concedes 1.68 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Belshina attack 2.35 + Shakhtyor Petrikov defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 2.02

Shakhtyor Petrikov attack 1.53 + Belshina defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Belshina scores more

55%

level

22%

Shakhtyor Petrikov scores more

23%

Belshina at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Belshina will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff