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Belshina vs Ruh Brest — Coppa 2019

Belshina
Belshina
FT
1 – 3
HT: 1 – 2
Ruh Brest
Ruh Brestadvanced
6/23/2021CoppaCoppa · Round of 32Stadyen Spartak

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Belshina14%
×Draw18%
Ruh Brest68%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Belshina
1.00
Ruh Brest
2.42

Ruh Brest creates 142% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 3 away

creates per match

Belshina
1.00
Ruh Brest
2.00

allows per match

Belshina
2.83
Ruh Brest
1.00

finishing

Belshina+0.00on par
Ruh Brest+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Belshina ↓

Ruh Brest →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–18%
0–210%
0–38%
0–45%
1
1–03%
1–18%
1–210%
1–38%
1–45%
2
2–02%
2–14%
2–25%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Belshina or draw
32%
Belshina or Ruh Brest
82%
Draw or Ruh Brest
86%

Winning margin

Belshina wins by 2+
5%
Ruh Brest wins by 2+
46%

Team goals

Belshina 1+ goals
63%
Belshina 2+ goals
26%
Belshina 3+ goals
8%
Ruh Brest 1+ goals
91%
Ruh Brest 2+ goals
69%
Ruh Brest 3+ goals
43%

Draw no bet

Belshina (draw refunded)
17%
Ruh Brest (draw refunded)
83%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Belshina at home — creates 1.00, concedes 2.83 · 6 matches

Ruh Brest away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Belshina attack 1.00 + Ruh Brest defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.00

Ruh Brest attack 2.00 + Belshina defence 2.83 → ÷2 → 2.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Belshina scores more
14%
level
18%
Ruh Brest scores more
68%

Ruh Brest at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Ruh Brest will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Coppa: Belshina 1–3 Ruh Brest

Ruh Brest beat Belshina 3-1 in Coppa on June 23, 2021.

The match was played at Stadyen Spartak in Bobruisk.