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Belshina vs ML Vitebsk — Premier League 2018

Belshina
Belshina
Preview
16:00
ML Vitebsk
ML Vitebsk
11/28/2026Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 30Spartak Stadium
Big match
63%
ML Vitebsk
model favours
16%21%63%

Both teams score in 80% of Belshina’s matches

brightest fact of this match

0–1
likely score
52%
over 2.5 goals
49%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Belshina16%
×Draw21%
ML Vitebsk63%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Belshina
0.85
ML Vitebsk
1.93

ML Vitebsk creates 127% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 24 away

creates per match

Belshina
0.96
ML Vitebsk
1.92

allows per match

Belshina
1.94
ML Vitebsk
0.75

finishing

Belshina+0.00on par
ML Vitebsk+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Belshina ↓

ML Vitebsk →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–112%
0–212%
0–37%
0–44%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–02%
2–14%
2–24%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Belshina or draw
37%
Belshina or ML Vitebsk
79%
Draw or ML Vitebsk
84%

Winning margin

Belshina wins by 2+
5%
ML Vitebsk wins by 2+
38%

Team goals

Belshina 1+ goals
57%
Belshina 2+ goals
21%
Belshina 3+ goals
5%
ML Vitebsk 1+ goals
85%
ML Vitebsk 2+ goals
57%
ML Vitebsk 3+ goals
30%

Draw no bet

Belshina (draw refunded)
20%
ML Vitebsk (draw refunded)
80%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Belshina at home — creates 0.96, concedes 1.94 · 52 matches

ML Vitebsk away — creates 1.92, concedes 0.75 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Belshina attack 0.96 + ML Vitebsk defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.85

ML Vitebsk attack 1.92 + Belshina defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Belshina scores more
16%
level
21%
ML Vitebsk scores more
63%

ML Vitebsk at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "ML Vitebsk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Belshina score first in only 30% of matches
  • ML Vitebsk have won 4 of the last 5 meetings
  • 36% of ML Vitebsk’s goals come after the 75th minute
  • Belshina sit 14, ML Vitebsk 2 in the table
  • Their last 5 meetings averaged 3.8 goals

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Belshina
DLLDL
Vitebsk
LLWWD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Belshina vs ML Vitebsk — Match Preview

Belshina face ML Vitebsk on November 28, 2026 in this Premier League fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Belshina host ML Vitebsk at Spartak Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.