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Belshina vs ML Vitebsk — Coppa 2019

Belshina
Belshina
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
ML Vitebsk
ML Vitebskadvanced
3/2/2025CoppaCoppa · Quarter-finalsStadyen im. Alexander Prokopenko

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Belshina7%
×Draw11%
ML Vitebsk81%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Belshina
1.00
ML Vitebsk
3.42

ML Vitebsk creates 242% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 9 away

creates per match

Belshina
1.00
ML Vitebsk
4.00

allows per match

Belshina
2.83
ML Vitebsk
1.00

finishing

Belshina+0.00on par
ML Vitebsk+0.00on par

Total goals

81%Over
  • Over81
  • Under19

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Belshina ↓

ML Vitebsk →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–14%
0–27%
0–39%
0–47%
1
1–01%
1–14%
1–27%
1–39%
1–47%
2
2–01%
2–12%
2–24%
2–34%
2–44%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–3 (9%) · grid covers 78% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
81%19%3.5
62%38%4.5
42%58%

Double chance

Belshina or draw
19%
Belshina or ML Vitebsk
89%
Draw or ML Vitebsk
93%

Winning margin

Belshina wins by 2+
2%
ML Vitebsk wins by 2+
64%

Team goals

Belshina 1+ goals
63%
Belshina 2+ goals
26%
Belshina 3+ goals
8%
ML Vitebsk 1+ goals
97%
ML Vitebsk 2+ goals
85%
ML Vitebsk 3+ goals
64%

Draw no bet

Belshina (draw refunded)
8%
ML Vitebsk (draw refunded)
92%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Belshina at home — creates 1.00, concedes 2.83 · 6 matches

ML Vitebsk away — creates 4.00, concedes 1.00 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Belshina attack 1.00 + ML Vitebsk defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.00

ML Vitebsk attack 4.00 + Belshina defence 2.83 → ÷2 → 3.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 81%?"

Belshina scores more
7%
level
11%
ML Vitebsk scores more
81%

ML Vitebsk at 81% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 81% does not mean "ML Vitebsk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Coppa: Belshina 1–2 ML Vitebsk

ML Vitebsk beat Belshina 2-1 in Coppa on March 2, 2025.

The match was played at Stadyen im. Alexander Prokopenko in Bobruisk.