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Belshina vs FC Slutsk — Premier League 2018

Belshina
Belshina
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
FC Slutsk
FC Slutsk
M. Sanets 24'
P. Grechishko 18'
5/7/2022Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 7Stadyen Spartak

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Belshina35%
×Draw26%
FC Slutsk40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Belshina
1.29
FC Slutsk
1.40

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 52 home / 110 away

creates per match

Belshina
0.96
FC Slutsk
0.85

allows per match

Belshina
1.94
FC Slutsk
1.61

finishing

Belshina+0.00on par
FC Slutsk+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Belshina ↓

FC Slutsk →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Belshina or draw
60%
Belshina or FC Slutsk
74%
Draw or FC Slutsk
65%

Winning margin

Belshina wins by 2+
15%
FC Slutsk wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Belshina 1+ goals
72%
Belshina 2+ goals
37%
Belshina 3+ goals
14%
FC Slutsk 1+ goals
75%
FC Slutsk 2+ goals
41%
FC Slutsk 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Belshina (draw refunded)
47%
FC Slutsk (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Belshina at home — creates 0.96, concedes 1.94 · 52 matches

FC Slutsk away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.61 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Belshina attack 0.96 + FC Slutsk defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.29

FC Slutsk attack 0.85 + Belshina defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Belshina scores more
35%
level
26%
FC Slutsk scores more
40%

FC Slutsk at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "FC Slutsk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

18'
P. Grechishko
24'
M. Sanets
46'
D. Velisevich← I. Chesnokov
46'
R. Isaev← I. Baklanov
46'
K. Rodionov← D. Vashkevich
51'
Igor Troyakov
56'
Evgeni Veljko
61'
Kirill Vergeychik
64'
S. Glebko← M. Sanets
70'
R. Piletskiy← A. Rum
73'
S. Rusak← N. Bylinkin
74'
D. Gomza← I. Kukharchik
82'
V. Yatskevich← D. Girs
85'
A. Skvorchevskiy← I. Vasiljev
88'
D. Obrazov← V. Yatskevich

Statistics

BelshinaFC
Overview
4Corners6
Discipline
1Yellow Cards2

Match Recap: Belshina vs FC Slutsk

FC Slutsk beat Belshina 2-0 in Premier League on May 7, 2022.

Goals: P. Grechishko (18'), M. Sanets (24').

The match was played at Stadyen Spartak in Bobruisk.