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Belshina vs FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk — Premier League 2018

Belshina
Belshina
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk
FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk
11/5/2023Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 27Stadyen Spartak

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

Belshina29%
×Draw24%
FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk47%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Belshina
1.23
FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk
1.63

FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk creates 33% more chances

Season form · 53 home / 74 away

creates per match

Belshina
0.96
FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk
1.34

allows per match

Belshina
1.92
FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk
1.51

finishing

Belshina+0.00on par
FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Belshina ↓

FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–28%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Belshina or draw
53%
Belshina or FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk
76%
Draw or FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk
71%

Winning margin

Belshina wins by 2+
12%
FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Belshina 1+ goals
71%
Belshina 2+ goals
35%
Belshina 3+ goals
13%
FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk 1+ goals
80%
FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk 2+ goals
48%
FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Belshina (draw refunded)
38%
FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk (draw refunded)
62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Belshina at home — creates 0.96, concedes 1.92 · 53 matches

FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk away — creates 1.34, concedes 1.51 · 74 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Belshina attack 0.96 + FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.23

FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk attack 1.34 + Belshina defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 1.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Belshina scores more
29%
level
24%
FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk scores more
47%

FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Belshina vs FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk

FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk beat Belshina 1-0 in Premier League on November 5, 2023.

The match was played at Stadyen Spartak in Bobruisk.