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Belshina vs Dinamo Minsk — Premier League 2018

Belshina
Belshina
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Dinamo Minsk
Dinamo Minsk
8/27/2022Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 19Stadyen Spartak

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Belshina18%
×Draw23%
Dinamo Minsk59%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Belshina
0.90
Dinamo Minsk
1.81

Dinamo Minsk creates 101% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 115 away

creates per match

Belshina
0.96
Dinamo Minsk
1.69

allows per match

Belshina
1.94
Dinamo Minsk
0.83

finishing

Belshina+0.00on par
Dinamo Minsk+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Belshina ↓

Dinamo Minsk →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–112%
0–211%
0–37%
0–43%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–15%
2–24%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Belshina or draw
41%
Belshina or Dinamo Minsk
77%
Draw or Dinamo Minsk
82%

Winning margin

Belshina wins by 2+
6%
Dinamo Minsk wins by 2+
34%

Team goals

Belshina 1+ goals
59%
Belshina 2+ goals
23%
Belshina 3+ goals
6%
Dinamo Minsk 1+ goals
84%
Dinamo Minsk 2+ goals
54%
Dinamo Minsk 3+ goals
27%

Draw no bet

Belshina (draw refunded)
24%
Dinamo Minsk (draw refunded)
76%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Belshina at home — creates 0.96, concedes 1.94 · 52 matches

Dinamo Minsk away — creates 1.69, concedes 0.83 · 115 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Belshina attack 0.96 + Dinamo Minsk defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.90

Dinamo Minsk attack 1.69 + Belshina defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Belshina scores more
18%
level
23%
Dinamo Minsk scores more
59%

Dinamo Minsk at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Dinamo Minsk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Belshina 0–0 Dinamo Minsk

Belshina and Dinamo Minsk drew 0-0 in Premier League on August 27, 2022.

The match was played at Stadyen Spartak in Bobruisk.