Belo Jardim 0–0 Imperatriz: Result & Stats

Belo Jardim

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Imperatriz

4/29/2018

Serie D · Round 2Estádio José Bezerra de Mendonça (Belo Jardim, Pernambuco)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Belo Jardim38%

×Draw38%

Imperatriz24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Belo JardimExpected goals in this matchImperatriz

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.80

0.57

Belo Jardim

0.80

Imperatriz

0.57

Belo Jardim creates 40% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 26 away

0.33

creates per match

0.81

0.33

allows per match

1.27

creates per match

Belo Jardim

0.33

Imperatriz

0.81

allows per match

Belo Jardim

0.33

Imperatriz

1.27

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Belo Jardim+0.00on par

Imperatriz+0.00on par

Total goals

Under84
Over16

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No76
Yes24

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Belo Jardim ↓

Imperatriz →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–025%

0–114%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–020%

1–112%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–15%

2–21%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–11%

3–20%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (25%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

75%25%1.5

40%60%2.5

16%84%3.5

5%95%4.5

1%99%

Double chance

Belo Jardim or draw

76%

Belo Jardim or Imperatriz

62%

Draw or Imperatriz

62%

Winning margin

Belo Jardim wins by 2+

12%

Imperatriz wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Belo Jardim 1+ goals

55%

Belo Jardim 2+ goals

19%

Belo Jardim 3+ goals

5%

Imperatriz 1+ goals

43%

Imperatriz 2+ goals

11%

Imperatriz 3+ goals

2%

Draw no bet

Belo Jardim (draw refunded)

61%

Imperatriz (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

12%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Belo Jardim at home — creates 0.33, concedes 0.33 · 3 matches

Imperatriz away — creates 0.81, concedes 1.27 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Belo Jardim attack 0.33 + Imperatriz defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 0.80

Imperatriz attack 0.81 + Belo Jardim defence 0.33 → ÷2 → 0.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Belo Jardim scores more

38%

level

38%

Imperatriz scores more

24%

Belo Jardim at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Belo Jardim will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

46'

Raniel← Bruno

46'

Junior Chicão← Kanu

57'

Lucas← Bebeto

74'

Anderson← Oseas

80'

Diego Vitor← Eloir

86'

Mateus← Adauto

Belo

Imperatriz

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Pedro Manta

46'▲Raniel←▼Bruno

57'▲Lucas←▼Bebeto

74'▲Anderson←▼Oseas

Belo Jardim substitutes

RanielLucasAndersonAndreiGustavoLuanVandinhoNevesCharlesGenildoJúnior

Manager: Vinícius Saldanha

46'▲Junior Chicão←▼Kanu

80'▲Diego Vitor←▼Eloir

86'▲Mateus←▼Adauto

Imperatriz substitutes

ChicãoVitorMateusCruzGabrielSousaHenrique