Belmont Swansea 4–1 Thornton Redbacks

Belmont Swansea

FT

4 – 1

Thornton Redbacks

3/20/2024

NNSW League 1 · Round 5Blacksmiths Oval

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Belmont Swansea73%

×Draw14%

Thornton Redbacks12%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Belmont SwanseaExpected goals in this matchThornton Redbacks

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

3.16

1.27

Belmont Swansea

3.16

Thornton Redbacks

1.27

Belmont Swansea creates 149% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 21 away

4.17

creates per match

1.62

0.92

allows per match

2.14

creates per match

Belmont Swansea

4.17

Thornton Redbacks

1.62

allows per match

Belmont Swansea

0.92

Thornton Redbacks

2.14

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Belmont Swansea+0.00on par

Thornton Redbacks+0.00on par

Total goals

Over81
Under19

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes69
No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Belmont Swansea ↓

Thornton Redbacks →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–12%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–04%

1–15%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–07%

3–18%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–05%

4–17%

4–24%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 81% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

93%7%2.5

81%19%3.5

63%37%4.5

43%57%

Double chance

Belmont Swansea or draw

88%

Belmont Swansea or Thornton Redbacks

86%

Draw or Thornton Redbacks

27%

Winning margin

Belmont Swansea wins by 2+

54%

Thornton Redbacks wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Belmont Swansea 1+ goals

96%

Belmont Swansea 2+ goals

82%

Belmont Swansea 3+ goals

59%

Thornton Redbacks 1+ goals

72%

Thornton Redbacks 2+ goals

36%

Thornton Redbacks 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Belmont Swansea (draw refunded)

86%

Thornton Redbacks (draw refunded)

14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

64%

Both score & under 3

5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Belmont Swansea at home — creates 4.17, concedes 0.92 · 12 matches

Thornton Redbacks away — creates 1.62, concedes 2.14 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Belmont Swansea attack 4.17 + Thornton Redbacks defence 2.14 → ÷2 → 3.16

Thornton Redbacks attack 1.62 + Belmont Swansea defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 73%?"

Belmont Swansea scores more

73%

level

14%

Thornton Redbacks scores more

12%

Belmont Swansea at 73% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 73% does not mean "Belmont Swansea will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff