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Belluno vs Delta Porto Tolle — Serie D - Girone C 2019

Belluno
Belluno
FT
1 – 2
Delta Porto Tolle
Delta Porto Tolle
S. Corbanese 90+6'
Unknown 80'
A. Raimondi 75'
1/19/2020Serie D - Girone CSerie D - Girone C · Round 23Stadio Comunale Polisportivo (Belluno)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Belluno39%
×Draw28%
Delta Porto Tolle33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Belluno
1.26
Delta Porto Tolle
1.14

Belluno creates 11% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 30 away

creates per match

Belluno
1.15
Delta Porto Tolle
1.13

allows per match

Belluno
1.15
Delta Porto Tolle
1.37

finishing

Belluno+0.00on par
Delta Porto Tolle+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Belluno ↓

Delta Porto Tolle →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Belluno or draw
67%
Belluno or Delta Porto Tolle
72%
Draw or Delta Porto Tolle
61%

Winning margin

Belluno wins by 2+
17%
Delta Porto Tolle wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Belluno 1+ goals
72%
Belluno 2+ goals
36%
Belluno 3+ goals
13%
Delta Porto Tolle 1+ goals
68%
Delta Porto Tolle 2+ goals
32%
Delta Porto Tolle 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Belluno (draw refunded)
54%
Delta Porto Tolle (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Belluno at home — creates 1.15, concedes 1.15 · 13 matches

Delta Porto Tolle away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.37 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Belluno attack 1.15 + Delta Porto Tolle defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.26

Delta Porto Tolle attack 1.13 + Belluno defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Belluno scores more
39%
level
28%
Delta Porto Tolle scores more
33%

Belluno at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Belluno will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

75'
A. Raimondi
80'
90+6'
S. Corbanese

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Belluno vs Delta Porto Tolle

Delta Porto Tolle beat Belluno 2-1 in Serie D - Girone C on January 19, 2020.

Goals: A. Raimondi (75'), ? (80'), S. Corbanese (90+6').

The match was played at Stadio Comunale Polisportivo (Belluno).