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Belluno vs Cjarlins Muzane — Serie D - Girone C 2019

Belluno
Belluno
FT
0 – 1
Cjarlins Muzane
Cjarlins Muzane
9/22/2019Serie D - Girone CSerie D - Girone C · Round 5Stadio Comunale Polisportivo (Belluno)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Belluno37%
×Draw28%
Cjarlins Muzane35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Belluno
1.19
Cjarlins Muzane
1.15

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 13 home / 101 away

creates per match

Belluno
1.15
Cjarlins Muzane
1.15

allows per match

Belluno
1.15
Cjarlins Muzane
1.23

finishing

Belluno+0.00on par
Cjarlins Muzane+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Belluno ↓

Cjarlins Muzane →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Belluno or draw
65%
Belluno or Cjarlins Muzane
72%
Draw or Cjarlins Muzane
63%

Winning margin

Belluno wins by 2+
16%
Cjarlins Muzane wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Belluno 1+ goals
70%
Belluno 2+ goals
33%
Belluno 3+ goals
12%
Cjarlins Muzane 1+ goals
68%
Cjarlins Muzane 2+ goals
32%
Cjarlins Muzane 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Belluno (draw refunded)
51%
Cjarlins Muzane (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Belluno at home — creates 1.15, concedes 1.15 · 13 matches

Cjarlins Muzane away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.23 · 101 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Belluno attack 1.15 + Cjarlins Muzane defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.19

Cjarlins Muzane attack 1.15 + Belluno defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Belluno scores more
37%
level
28%
Cjarlins Muzane scores more
35%

Belluno at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Belluno will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Belluno vs Cjarlins Muzane

Cjarlins Muzane beat Belluno 1-0 in Serie D - Girone C on September 22, 2019.

The match was played at Stadio Comunale Polisportivo (Belluno).