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Bellinzona vs Köniz — 1. Liga Promotion 2019

Bellinzona
Bellinzona
FT
4 – 0
Köniz
Köniz
5/18/20191. Liga Promotion1. Liga Promotion · Round 29Stadio Comunale di Giubiasco

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Bellinzona68%
×Draw18%
Köniz14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bellinzona
2.32
Köniz
0.94

Bellinzona creates 147% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 22 away

creates per match

Bellinzona
1.78
Köniz
1.09

allows per match

Bellinzona
0.78
Köniz
2.86

finishing

Bellinzona+0.00on par
Köniz+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bellinzona ↓

Köniz →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–18%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Bellinzona or draw
86%
Bellinzona or Köniz
82%
Draw or Köniz
32%

Winning margin

Bellinzona wins by 2+
45%
Köniz wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Bellinzona 1+ goals
90%
Bellinzona 2+ goals
67%
Bellinzona 3+ goals
40%
Köniz 1+ goals
61%
Köniz 2+ goals
24%
Köniz 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Bellinzona (draw refunded)
83%
Köniz (draw refunded)
17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bellinzona at home — creates 1.78, concedes 0.78 · 37 matches

Köniz away — creates 1.09, concedes 2.86 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bellinzona attack 1.78 + Köniz defence 2.86 → ÷2 → 2.32

Köniz attack 1.09 + Bellinzona defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Bellinzona scores more
68%
level
18%
Köniz scores more
14%

Bellinzona at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Bellinzona will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Bellinzona vs Köniz

Bellinzona beat Köniz 4-0 in 1. Liga Promotion on May 18, 2019.

The match was played at Stadio Comunale di Giubiasco in Giubiasco.