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Bella Vista vs Potencia — Segunda División 2026

Bella Vista
Bella Vista
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Potencia
Potencia
11/13/2023Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · 2nd Phase - 21Parque Palermo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Bella Vista41%
×Draw28%
Potencia31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bella Vista
1.23
Potencia
1.03

Bella Vista creates 19% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 16 away

creates per match

Bella Vista
0.89
Potencia
0.44

allows per match

Bella Vista
1.63
Potencia
1.56

finishing

Bella Vista+0.00on par
Potencia+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bella Vista ↓

Potencia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Bella Vista or draw
69%
Bella Vista or Potencia
72%
Draw or Potencia
59%

Winning margin

Bella Vista wins by 2+
18%
Potencia wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Bella Vista 1+ goals
71%
Bella Vista 2+ goals
35%
Bella Vista 3+ goals
13%
Potencia 1+ goals
64%
Potencia 2+ goals
28%
Potencia 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Bella Vista (draw refunded)
57%
Potencia (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bella Vista at home — creates 0.89, concedes 1.63 · 27 matches

Potencia away — creates 0.44, concedes 1.56 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bella Vista attack 0.89 + Potencia defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.23

Potencia attack 0.44 + Bella Vista defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Bella Vista scores more
41%
level
28%
Potencia scores more
31%

Bella Vista at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Bella Vista will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Bella Vista vs Potencia

Bella Vista and Potencia drew 1-1 in Segunda División on November 13, 2023.

The match was played at Parque Palermo in Montevideo.