Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Belišće vs Zagorec — Second NL 2022

Belišće
Belišće
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Zagorec
Zagorec
4/29/2023Second NLSecond NL · Round 25Stadion Gradski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Belišće40%
×Draw25%
Zagorec35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Belišće
1.47
Zagorec
1.35

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 30 home / 16 away

creates per match

Belišće
0.93
Zagorec
1.00

allows per match

Belišće
1.70
Zagorec
2.00

finishing

Belišće+0.00on par
Zagorec+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Belišće ↓

Zagorec →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Belišće or draw
65%
Belišće or Zagorec
75%
Draw or Zagorec
60%

Winning margin

Belišće wins by 2+
19%
Zagorec wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Belišće 1+ goals
77%
Belišće 2+ goals
43%
Belišće 3+ goals
18%
Zagorec 1+ goals
74%
Zagorec 2+ goals
39%
Zagorec 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Belišće (draw refunded)
54%
Zagorec (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Belišće at home — creates 0.93, concedes 1.70 · 30 matches

Zagorec away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.00 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Belišće attack 0.93 + Zagorec defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.47

Zagorec attack 1.00 + Belišće defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Belišće scores more
40%
level
25%
Zagorec scores more
35%

Belišće at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Belišće will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Belišće vs Zagorec

Zagorec beat Belišće 3-1 in Second NL on April 29, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Gradski in Belišće.