Belišće 2–1 Medjimurje Cakovec: Result & Stats

Belišće

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Medjimurje Cakovec

F. Radovanovic 72'

D. Stojanac 23'

P. Havojic 64'

11/26/2022

Second NL · Round 15Stadion Gradski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Belišće48%

×Draw23%

Medjimurje Cakovec29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BelišćeExpected goals in this matchMedjimurje Cakovec

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.80

1.35

Belišće

1.80

Medjimurje Cakovec

1.35

Belišće creates 33% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 15 away

0.93

creates per match

1.00

1.70

allows per match

2.67

creates per match

Belišće

0.93

Medjimurje Cakovec

1.00

allows per match

Belišće

1.70

Medjimurje Cakovec

2.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Belišće+0.00on par

Medjimurje Cakovec+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Belišće ↓

Medjimurje Cakovec →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

38%62%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Belišće or draw

71%

Belišće or Medjimurje Cakovec

77%

Draw or Medjimurje Cakovec

52%

Winning margin

Belišće wins by 2+

26%

Medjimurje Cakovec wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Belišće 1+ goals

83%

Belišće 2+ goals

54%

Belišće 3+ goals

27%

Medjimurje Cakovec 1+ goals

74%

Medjimurje Cakovec 2+ goals

39%

Medjimurje Cakovec 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Belišće (draw refunded)

62%

Medjimurje Cakovec (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Belišće at home — creates 0.93, concedes 1.70 · 30 matches

Medjimurje Cakovec away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.67 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Belišće attack 0.93 + Medjimurje Cakovec defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 1.80

Medjimurje Cakovec attack 1.00 + Belišće defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Belišće scores more

48%

level

23%

Medjimurje Cakovec scores more

29%

Belišće at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Belišće will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

23'

D. Stojanac

64'

P. Havojic

72'

F. Radovanovic

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff