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Belišće vs Križevci — Second NL 2022

Belišće
Belišće
FT
0 – 2
Križevci
Križevci
3/16/2024Second NLSecond NL · Round 19Stadion Gradski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Belišće29%
×Draw26%
Križevci45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Belišće
1.14
Križevci
1.48

Križevci creates 30% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 46 away

creates per match

Belišće
0.93
Križevci
1.26

allows per match

Belišće
1.70
Križevci
1.35

finishing

Belišće+0.00on par
Križevci+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Belišće ↓

Križevci →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–111%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Belišće or draw
55%
Belišće or Križevci
74%
Draw or Križevci
71%

Winning margin

Belišće wins by 2+
12%
Križevci wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Belišće 1+ goals
68%
Belišće 2+ goals
32%
Belišće 3+ goals
11%
Križevci 1+ goals
77%
Križevci 2+ goals
43%
Križevci 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Belišće (draw refunded)
39%
Križevci (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Belišće at home — creates 0.93, concedes 1.70 · 30 matches

Križevci away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.35 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Belišće attack 0.93 + Križevci defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.14

Križevci attack 1.26 + Belišće defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Belišće scores more
29%
level
26%
Križevci scores more
45%

Križevci at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Križevci will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second NL: Belišće 0–2 Križevci

Križevci beat Belišće 2-0 in Second NL on March 16, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Gradski in Belišće.