Belišće 1–1 Karlovac 1919: Result & Stats

Belišće

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Karlovac 1919

10/28/2023

Second NL · Round 11Stadion Gradski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Belišće25%

×Draw26%

Karlovac 191949%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BelišćeExpected goals in this matchKarlovac 1919

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.98

1.48

Belišće

0.98

Karlovac 1919

1.48

Karlovac 1919 creates 51% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 31 away

0.93

creates per match

1.26

1.70

allows per match

1.03

creates per match

Belišće

0.93

Karlovac 1919

1.26

allows per match

Belišće

1.70

Karlovac 1919

1.03

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Belišće+0.00on par

Karlovac 1919+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Belišće ↓

Karlovac 1919 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–113%

0–29%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–16%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

45%55%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Belišće or draw

51%

Belišće or Karlovac 1919

74%

Draw or Karlovac 1919

75%

Winning margin

Belišće wins by 2+

9%

Karlovac 1919 wins by 2+

24%

Team goals

Belišće 1+ goals

62%

Belišće 2+ goals

26%

Belišće 3+ goals

8%

Karlovac 1919 1+ goals

77%

Karlovac 1919 2+ goals

43%

Karlovac 1919 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Belišće (draw refunded)

34%

Karlovac 1919 (draw refunded)

66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Belišće at home — creates 0.93, concedes 1.70 · 30 matches

Karlovac 1919 away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.03 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Belišće attack 0.93 + Karlovac 1919 defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 0.98

Karlovac 1919 attack 1.26 + Belišće defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Belišće scores more

25%

level

26%

Karlovac 1919 scores more

49%

Karlovac 1919 at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Karlovac 1919 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff