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Belgrano Zarate vs Everton La Plata — Torneo Promocional Amateur 2026

Belgrano Zarate
Belgrano Zarate
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Everton La Plata
Everton La Plata
7/27/2024Torneo Promocional AmateurTorneo Promocional Amateur · Clausura - 2Estadio Luis Vallejos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Belgrano Zarate30%
×Draw31%
Everton La Plata39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Belgrano Zarate
0.88
Everton La Plata
1.04

Everton La Plata creates 18% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 22 away

creates per match

Belgrano Zarate
0.61
Everton La Plata
0.95

allows per match

Belgrano Zarate
1.13
Everton La Plata
1.14

finishing

Belgrano Zarate+0.00on par
Everton La Plata+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Under
  • Under70
  • Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Belgrano Zarate ↓

Everton La Plata →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–115%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–16%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
57%43%2.5
30%70%3.5
13%87%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Belgrano Zarate or draw
61%
Belgrano Zarate or Everton La Plata
69%
Draw or Everton La Plata
70%

Winning margin

Belgrano Zarate wins by 2+
10%
Everton La Plata wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Belgrano Zarate 1+ goals
59%
Belgrano Zarate 2+ goals
22%
Belgrano Zarate 3+ goals
6%
Everton La Plata 1+ goals
65%
Everton La Plata 2+ goals
28%
Everton La Plata 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Belgrano Zarate (draw refunded)
44%
Everton La Plata (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Belgrano Zarate at home — creates 0.61, concedes 1.13 · 23 matches

Everton La Plata away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.14 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Belgrano Zarate attack 0.61 + Everton La Plata defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 0.88

Everton La Plata attack 0.95 + Belgrano Zarate defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Belgrano Zarate scores more
30%
level
31%
Everton La Plata scores more
39%

Everton La Plata at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Everton La Plata will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Belgrano Zarate vs Everton La Plata

Belgrano Zarate and Everton La Plata drew 1-1 in Torneo Promocional Amateur on July 27, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Luis Vallejos in Zárate, Provincia de Buenos Aires.