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Belgrano Zarate vs Barrancas UMET — Torneo Promocional Amateur 2026

Belgrano Zarate
Belgrano Zarate
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Barrancas UMET
Barrancas UMET
8/10/2024Torneo Promocional AmateurTorneo Promocional Amateur · Clausura - 4Estadio Luis Vallejos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Belgrano Zarate28%
×Draw32%
Barrancas UMET40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Belgrano Zarate
0.83
Barrancas UMET
1.04

Barrancas UMET creates 25% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 22 away

creates per match

Belgrano Zarate
0.61
Barrancas UMET
0.95

allows per match

Belgrano Zarate
1.13
Barrancas UMET
1.05

finishing

Belgrano Zarate+0.00on par
Barrancas UMET+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Under
  • Under71
  • Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

64%No
  • No64
  • Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Belgrano Zarate ↓

Barrancas UMET →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–116%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–16%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
56%44%2.5
29%71%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Belgrano Zarate or draw
60%
Belgrano Zarate or Barrancas UMET
68%
Draw or Barrancas UMET
72%

Winning margin

Belgrano Zarate wins by 2+
9%
Barrancas UMET wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Belgrano Zarate 1+ goals
56%
Belgrano Zarate 2+ goals
20%
Belgrano Zarate 3+ goals
5%
Barrancas UMET 1+ goals
65%
Barrancas UMET 2+ goals
28%
Barrancas UMET 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Belgrano Zarate (draw refunded)
42%
Barrancas UMET (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
23%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Belgrano Zarate at home — creates 0.61, concedes 1.13 · 23 matches

Barrancas UMET away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.05 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Belgrano Zarate attack 0.61 + Barrancas UMET defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 0.83

Barrancas UMET attack 0.95 + Belgrano Zarate defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Belgrano Zarate scores more
28%
level
32%
Barrancas UMET scores more
40%

Barrancas UMET at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Barrancas UMET will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Torneo Promocional Amateur: Belgrano Zarate 0–2 Barrancas UMET

Barrancas UMET beat Belgrano Zarate 2-0 in Torneo Promocional Amateur on August 10, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Luis Vallejos in Zárate, Provincia de Buenos Aires.