Belgrano Cordoba 1–0 Newells Old Boys

Belgrano Cordoba

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Newells Old Boys

P. Vegetti 42'

4/22/2023

Liga Profesional Argentina · Round 13Estadio Julio César Villagra

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 13+ matches

Belgrano Cordoba35%

×Draw30%

Newells Old Boys36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Belgrano CordobaExpected goals in this matchNewells Old Boys

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.04

1.06

Belgrano Cordoba

1.04

Newells Old Boys

1.06

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 18 home / 13 away

0.99

creates per match

1.12

0.99

allows per match

1.10

creates per match

Belgrano Cordoba

0.99

Newells Old Boys

1.12

allows per match

Belgrano Cordoba

0.99

Newells Old Boys

1.10

+0.07on par

finishing

-0.27scores less than expected

finishing

Belgrano Cordoba+0.07on par

Newells Old Boys-0.27scores less

Total goals

Under65
Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Belgrano Cordoba ↓

Newells Old Boys →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–113%

0–27%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–013%

1–114%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–17%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

62%38%2.5

35%65%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Belgrano Cordoba or draw

64%

Belgrano Cordoba or Newells Old Boys

70%

Draw or Newells Old Boys

65%

Winning margin

Belgrano Cordoba wins by 2+

13%

Newells Old Boys wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Belgrano Cordoba 1+ goals

65%

Belgrano Cordoba 2+ goals

28%

Belgrano Cordoba 3+ goals

9%

Newells Old Boys 1+ goals

65%

Newells Old Boys 2+ goals

29%

Newells Old Boys 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Belgrano Cordoba (draw refunded)

49%

Newells Old Boys (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Belgrano Cordoba at home — creates 0.99, concedes 0.99 · 18 matches

Newells Old Boys away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.10 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Belgrano Cordoba attack 0.99 + Newells Old Boys defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.04

Newells Old Boys attack 1.12 + Belgrano Cordoba defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Belgrano Cordoba scores more

35%

level

30%

Newells Old Boys scores more

36%

Newells Old Boys at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Newells Old Boys will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9

P. Vegetti

Belgrano Cordoba · F

7.7

Match Events

42'

P. Vegetti↳ J. Barinaga

46'

M. Portillo← G. Ortiz

55'

Cristian Ferreira

57'

Pablo Vegetti

69'

D. Barrea← I. Ortigoza

70'

D. Reasco← C. Ferreira

75'

G. Compagnucci← J. Barinaga

78'

Ángelo Martino

85'

J. Pérez← B. Aguirre

87'

Matías García

88'

G. Pereira← B. Zapelli

88'

D. Novaretti← N. Meriano

89'

I. Ramírez← U. Sánchez

89'

N. Fúnez← J. Mosquera

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BelgranoNewells

Overview

41%Possession59%

10Total Shots9

4Corners4

6Fouls12

Shots

10Total Shots9

3On Target0

4Off Target7

3Blocked2

7Inside Box6

3Outside Box3

Passing

41%Possession59%

300Total Passes445

211Accurate Passes357

70%Pass Accuracy80%

Goalkeeping

0Saves2

Discipline

6Fouls12

2Yellow Cards2

0Offsides2