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Belgium W vs Republic of Ireland W — Friendlies Women 2026

Belgium W
Belgium W
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Republic of Ireland W
Republic of Ireland W
4/11/2021Friendlies WomenFriendlies Women · Friendlies 1Stade Roi Baudouin

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Belgium W68%
×Draw19%
Republic of Ireland W13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Belgium W
2.15
Republic of Ireland W
0.81

Belgium W creates 165% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 9 away

creates per match

Belgium W
2.40
Republic of Ireland W
0.22

allows per match

Belgium W
1.40
Republic of Ireland W
1.89

finishing

Belgium W+0.00on par
Republic of Ireland W+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Belgium W ↓

Republic of Ireland W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–14%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–14%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Belgium W or draw
87%
Belgium W or Republic of Ireland W
81%
Draw or Republic of Ireland W
32%

Winning margin

Belgium W wins by 2+
44%
Republic of Ireland W wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Belgium W 1+ goals
88%
Belgium W 2+ goals
63%
Belgium W 3+ goals
36%
Republic of Ireland W 1+ goals
56%
Republic of Ireland W 2+ goals
19%
Republic of Ireland W 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Belgium W (draw refunded)
84%
Republic of Ireland W (draw refunded)
16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Belgium W at home — creates 2.40, concedes 1.40 · 10 matches

Republic of Ireland W away — creates 0.22, concedes 1.89 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Belgium W attack 2.40 + Republic of Ireland W defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 2.15

Republic of Ireland W attack 0.22 + Belgium W defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Belgium W scores more
68%
level
19%
Republic of Ireland W scores more
13%

Belgium W at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Belgium W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Belgium W vs Republic of Ireland W

Belgium W beat Republic of Ireland W 1-0 in Friendlies Women on April 11, 2021.

The match was played at Stade Roi Baudouin in Brussel.