Belgium W 1–6 Netherlands W: Result & Stats

Belgium W

1 – 6

HT: 0 – 1

Netherlands W

M. Minnaert 62'

R. Jansen 90'

D. van de Donk 81'

L. Martens 67'

S. van der Gragt 64'

J. Roord 54'

V. Miedema 33'

2/18/2021

Friendlies Women · Friendlies 1Stade Roi Baudouin

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Belgium W42%

×Draw22%

Netherlands W35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Belgium WExpected goals in this matchNetherlands W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.82

1.64

Belgium W

1.82

Netherlands W

1.64

Belgium W creates 11% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 8 away

2.40

creates per match

1.88

1.40

allows per match

1.25

creates per match

Belgium W

2.40

Netherlands W

1.88

allows per match

Belgium W

1.40

Netherlands W

1.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Belgium W+0.00on par

Netherlands W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over67
Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Belgium W ↓

Netherlands W →

0–03%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1–06%

1–19%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2–05%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

67%33%3.5

45%55%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

Belgium W or draw

65%

Belgium W or Netherlands W

78%

Draw or Netherlands W

58%

Winning margin

Belgium W wins by 2+

23%

Netherlands W wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Belgium W 1+ goals

84%

Belgium W 2+ goals

54%

Belgium W 3+ goals

27%

Netherlands W 1+ goals

81%

Netherlands W 2+ goals

49%

Netherlands W 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

Belgium W (draw refunded)

55%

Netherlands W (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

58%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Belgium W at home — creates 2.40, concedes 1.40 · 10 matches

Netherlands W away — creates 1.88, concedes 1.25 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Belgium W attack 2.40 + Netherlands W defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.82

Netherlands W attack 1.88 + Belgium W defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 42%?"

Belgium W scores more

42%

level

22%

Netherlands W scores more

35%

Belgium W at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Belgium W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

33'

V. Miedema

35'

A. Tysiak

46'

I. Iliano← D. Philtjens

54'

J. Roord

62'

M. Minnaert↳ J. Cayman

64'

L. Beerensteyn← L. Wilms

64'

S. van der Gragt↳ M. van Dongen

65'

K. van Es← S. van der Gragt

67'

L. Martens↳ M. van Dongen

73'

E. Van Kerkhoven← D. Vanmechelen

74'

H. Eurlings← T. Wullaert

74'

C. Van de Velde← M. Minnaert

74'

K. Snoeijs← V. Miedema

74'

V. Pelova← S. Spitse

81'

D. van de Donk↳ V. Pelova

82'

R. Jansen← L. Martens

82'

I. Kaagman← D. van de Donk

85'

L. Beerensteyn

90'

R. Jansen↳ K. Snoeijs

Belgium

Netherlands

Veenendaa

⚽

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Donk

Groenen

⚽

Roord

⚽

▼

Martens

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

Manager: I. Serneels

46'▲I. Iliano←▼D. Philtjens

73'▲E. Van Kerkhoven←▼D. Vanmechelen

74'▲H. Eurlings←▼T. Wullaert

74'▲C. Van de Velde←▼M. Minnaert

Belgium W substitutes

17Iliano3Kerkhoven13Eurlings19Velde10Wijnants15Tison12Lemey5Delacauw8Onzia21Evrard7Vangheluwe18Vanwynsberghe

Manager: S. Wiegman

64'▲L. Beerensteyn←▼L. Wilms

65'▲K. van Es←▼S. van der Gragt

74'▲K. Snoeijs←▼V. Miedema

74'▲V. Pelova←▼S. Spitse

82'▲R. Jansen←▼L. Martens

82'▲I. Kaagman←▼D. van de Donk

Netherlands W substitutes

21Beerensteyn5Es17Snoeijs12Pelova13Jansen22Kaagman6Dekker18Kerkdijk23Geurts16Kop7Smits20Folkertsma

Match Recap: Belgium W vs Netherlands W

Netherlands W beat Belgium W 6-1 in Friendlies Women on February 18, 2021.

Goals: V. Miedema (33'), J. Roord (54'), M. Minnaert (62'), S. van der Gragt (64'), L. Martens (67'), D. van de Donk (81'), R. Jansen (90').

The match was played at Stade Roi Baudouin in Brussel.

Belgium W vs Netherlands W — Friendlies Women 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Belgium W vs Netherlands W