Belgium 3–0 Ukraine: Result & Stats

Belgium

FT

3 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Ukraine

R. Lukaku 86', 75'

M. De Cuyper 70'

3/23/2025

UEFA Nations League · Play-offs A/BCegeka Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Belgium60%

×Draw20%

Ukraine21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BelgiumExpected goals in this matchUkraine

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.31

1.29

Belgium

2.31

Ukraine

1.29

Belgium creates 79% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 11 away

2.54

creates per match

1.27

1.31

allows per match

2.09

creates per match

Belgium

2.54

Ukraine

1.27

allows per match

Belgium

1.31

Ukraine

2.09

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Belgium+0.00on par

Ukraine+0.00on par

Total goals

Over69
Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Belgium ↓

Ukraine →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–18%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

69%31%3.5

48%52%4.5

29%71%

Double chance

Belgium or draw

79%

Belgium or Ukraine

80%

Draw or Ukraine

40%

Winning margin

Belgium wins by 2+

38%

Ukraine wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Belgium 1+ goals

90%

Belgium 2+ goals

67%

Belgium 3+ goals

40%

Ukraine 1+ goals

72%

Ukraine 2+ goals

37%

Ukraine 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Belgium (draw refunded)

74%

Ukraine (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Belgium at home — creates 2.54, concedes 1.31 · 13 matches

Ukraine away — creates 1.27, concedes 2.09 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Belgium attack 2.54 + Ukraine defence 2.09 → ÷2 → 2.31

Ukraine attack 1.27 + Belgium defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Belgium scores more

60%

level

20%

Ukraine scores more

21%

Belgium at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Belgium will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

R. Lukaku

Belgium · F

8.5

Match Events

5'

12'

29'

45+2'

58'

69'

M. De Cuyper← T. Meunier

69'

A. Saelemaekers← L. Trossard

69'

V. Tsygankov← H. Sudakov

69'

B. Mykhailichenko← V. Mykolenko

69'

A. Dovbyk← V. Vanat

70'

M. De Cuyper↳ J. Doku

75'

R. Lukaku↳ K. De Bruyne

86'

R. Lukaku↳ H. Vanaken

89'

A. Yarmolenko← O. Hutsuliak

89'

R. Yaremchuk← O. Svatok

90+4'

Hans Vanaken

90'

B. Heynen← N. Raskin

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BelgiumUkraine

Overview

70%Possession30%

19Total Shots6

10Corners1

10Fouls9

Shots

19Total Shots6

6On Target1

7Off Target5

6Blocked0

11Inside Box3

8Outside Box3

Passing

70%Possession30%

571Total Passes257

494Accurate Passes171

87%Pass Accuracy67%

Goalkeeping

1Saves3

Discipline

10Fouls9

2Yellow Cards4

3Offsides2