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Belgium vs Switzerland — UEFA Nations League 2018

Belgium
Belgium
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Switzerland
Switzerland
Romelu Lukaku 84', 58'
Mario Gavranović 76'
10/12/2018UEFA Nations LeagueUEFA Nations League · League A - 3Roi Baudouin

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Belgium63%
×Draw19%
Switzerland17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Belgium
2.27
Switzerland
1.10

Belgium creates 106% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 10 away

creates per match

Belgium
2.54
Switzerland
0.90

allows per match

Belgium
1.31
Switzerland
2.00

finishing

Belgium+0.00on par
Switzerland+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Belgium ↓

Switzerland →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Belgium or draw
83%
Belgium or Switzerland
81%
Draw or Switzerland
37%

Winning margin

Belgium wins by 2+
41%
Switzerland wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Belgium 1+ goals
90%
Belgium 2+ goals
66%
Belgium 3+ goals
39%
Switzerland 1+ goals
67%
Switzerland 2+ goals
30%
Switzerland 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Belgium (draw refunded)
79%
Switzerland (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Belgium at home — creates 2.54, concedes 1.31 · 13 matches

Switzerland away — creates 0.90, concedes 2.00 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Belgium attack 2.54 + Switzerland defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.27

Switzerland attack 0.90 + Belgium defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Belgium scores more
63%
level
19%
Switzerland scores more
17%

Belgium at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Belgium will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

58'
Romelu Lukaku↳ Thomas Meunier
69'
Mario Gavranović← Haris Seferović
73'
Dedryk Boyata← Thomas Vermaelen
76'
Mario Gavranović↳ Nico Elvedi
77'
Nacer Chadli← Yannick Carrasco
83'
Edimilson Fernandes← Denis Zakaria
84'
Romelu Lukaku↳ Dries Mertens
88'
Christian Fassnacht← Remo Freuler
90'
Thorgan Hazard← Dries Mertens

Possession

49%Belgium

Shots

14Belgium

Statistics

BelgiumSwitzerland
Overview
49%Possession51%
14Total Shots9
5Corners3
12Fouls5
Shots
14Total Shots9
7On Target5
7Off Target4
Passing
49%Possession51%
Goalkeeping
4Saves5
Discipline
12Fouls5
0Red Cards0
0Offsides4

Match Recap: Belgium vs Switzerland

Belgium beat Switzerland 2-1 in UEFA Nations League on October 12, 2018.

Goals: Romelu Lukaku (58', 84'), Mario Gavranović (76').

Switzerland controlled possession (51%) and registered 9 shots to 14.

The match was played at Roi Baudouin in Brussels.