Belgium 2–0 Romania: Result & Stats

Belgium

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Romania

K. De Bruyne 80'

Y. Tielemans 2'

6/22/2024

Euro Championship · Group E - 2RheinEnergieSTADION

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Belgium59%

×Draw21%

Romania20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BelgiumExpected goals in this matchRomania

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.01

1.07

Belgium

2.01

Romania

1.07

Belgium creates 88% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 8 away

2.27

creates per match

1.50

0.64

allows per match

1.75

creates per match

Belgium

2.27

Romania

1.50

allows per match

Belgium

0.64

Romania

1.75

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Belgium+0.00on par

Romania+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Belgium ↓

Romania →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–110%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

37%63%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Belgium or draw

80%

Belgium or Romania

79%

Draw or Romania

41%

Winning margin

Belgium wins by 2+

35%

Romania wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Belgium 1+ goals

87%

Belgium 2+ goals

59%

Belgium 3+ goals

32%

Romania 1+ goals

66%

Romania 2+ goals

29%

Romania 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Belgium (draw refunded)

75%

Romania (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Belgium at home — creates 2.27, concedes 0.64 · 11 matches

Romania away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.75 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Belgium attack 2.27 + Romania defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 2.01

Romania attack 1.50 + Belgium defence 0.64 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Belgium scores more

59%

level

21%

Romania scores more

20%

Belgium at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Belgium will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7

K. De Bruyne

Belgium · M

8.7

Match Events

2'

Y. Tielemans↳ R. Lukaku

35'

Dodi Lukebakio

56'

L. Trossard← D. Lukébakio

59'

Nicușor Bancu

64'

Romelu LukakuGoal cancelled

65'

Marius Marin

68'

I. Hagi← V. Mihăilă

68'

D. Olaru← M. Marin

72'

O. Mangala← Y. Tielemans

72'

77'

80'

81'

90'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BelgiumRomania

Overview

55%Possession45%

20Total Shots14

1.76Expected Goals (xG)0.94

7Corners7

9Fouls11

Shots

20Total Shots14

9On Target5

5Off Target7

6Blocked2

14Inside Box7

6Outside Box7

Passing

55%Possession45%

431Total Passes352

365Accurate Passes286

85%Pass Accuracy81%

Goalkeeping

4Saves7

1.21Goals Prevented1.21

Discipline

9Fouls11

1Yellow Cards2

5Offsides1

Euro Championship: Belgium 2–0 Romania

Belgium beat Romania 2-0 in Euro Championship on June 22, 2024.

Goals: Y. Tielemans (2'), K. De Bruyne (80').

Belgium controlled possession (55%) and registered 20 shots to 14.

The match was played at RheinEnergieSTADION in Köln.

Belgium vs Romania — Euro Championship 2024

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Euro Championship: Belgium 2–0 Romania