Belgium 6–1 Poland: Result & Stats

Belgium

FT

6 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Poland

L. Openda 90+3'

L. Dendoncker 83'

L. Trossard 80', 73'

K. De Bruyne 59'

A. Witsel 42'

R. Lewandowski 28'

6/8/2022

UEFA Nations League · League A - 2Stade Roi Baudouin

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Belgium61%

×Draw20%

Poland19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BelgiumExpected goals in this matchPoland

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.27

1.20

Belgium

2.27

Poland

1.20

Belgium creates 89% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 11 away

2.54

creates per match

1.09

1.31

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Belgium

2.54

Poland

1.09

allows per match

Belgium

1.31

Poland

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Belgium+0.00on par

Poland+0.00on par

Total goals

Over67
Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Belgium ↓

Poland →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–19%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

67%33%3.5

45%55%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

Belgium or draw

81%

Belgium or Poland

80%

Draw or Poland

39%

Winning margin

Belgium wins by 2+

39%

Poland wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Belgium 1+ goals

90%

Belgium 2+ goals

66%

Belgium 3+ goals

39%

Poland 1+ goals

70%

Poland 2+ goals

34%

Poland 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Belgium (draw refunded)

76%

Poland (draw refunded)

24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Belgium at home — creates 2.54, concedes 1.31 · 13 matches

Poland away — creates 1.09, concedes 2.00 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Belgium attack 2.54 + Poland defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.27

Poland attack 1.09 + Belgium defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Belgium scores more

61%

level

20%

Poland scores more

19%

Belgium at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Belgium will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

17

L. Trossard

Belgium · F

8.5

Match Events

14'

Grzegorz Krychowiak

28'

R. Lewandowski↳ S. Szymański

36'

Axel Witsel

42'

A. Witsel↳ T. Castagne

46'

D. Szymański← G. Krychowiak

46'

B. Bereszyński← T. Puchacz

59'

K. De Bruyne↳ E. Hazard

66'

L. Trossard← E. Hazard

66'

M. Cash← S. Szymański

69'

A. Buksa← R. Lewandowski

73'

L. Trossard↳ M. Batshuayi

75'

C. De Ketelaere← K. De Bruyne

80'

L. Trossard↳ Y. Carrasco

81'

N. Zalewski← J. Kamiński

83'

L. Dendoncker↳ Y. Tielemans

84'

T. Hazard← T. Castagne

84'

L. Openda← M. Batshuayi

85'

W. Faes← A. Witsel

90+3'

L. Openda↳ T. Hazard

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BelgiumPoland

Overview

66%Possession34%

18Total Shots6

7Corners1

12Fouls11

Shots

18Total Shots6

11On Target2

5Off Target2

2Blocked2

11Inside Box4

7Outside Box2

Passing

66%Possession34%

662Total Passes346

599Accurate Passes268

90%Pass Accuracy77%

Goalkeeping

0Saves5

Discipline

12Fouls11

1Yellow Cards1

3Offsides4