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Belgium vs Montenegro — Friendlies 2026

Belgium
Belgium
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Montenegro
Montenegro
L. Trossard 90+3' (pen)
K. De Bruyne 44'
6/5/2024FriendliesFriendlies · Friendlies 1Stade Roi Baudouin

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Belgium58%
×Draw26%
Montenegro15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Belgium
1.47
Montenegro
0.61

Belgium creates 141% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 9 away

creates per match

Belgium
2.27
Montenegro
0.56

allows per match

Belgium
0.67
Montenegro
0.67

finishing

Belgium+0.00on par
Montenegro+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

65%No
  • No65
  • Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Belgium ↓

Montenegro →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–18%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–111%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Belgium or draw
85%
Belgium or Montenegro
74%
Draw or Montenegro
42%

Winning margin

Belgium wins by 2+
30%
Montenegro wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Belgium 1+ goals
77%
Belgium 2+ goals
43%
Belgium 3+ goals
18%
Montenegro 1+ goals
46%
Montenegro 2+ goals
13%
Montenegro 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Belgium (draw refunded)
79%
Montenegro (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Belgium at home — creates 2.27, concedes 0.67 · 15 matches

Montenegro away — creates 0.56, concedes 0.67 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Belgium attack 2.27 + Montenegro defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 1.47

Montenegro attack 0.56 + Belgium defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Belgium scores more
58%
level
26%
Montenegro scores more
15%

Belgium at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Belgium will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1
M. ŠarkićMontenegroMontenegro · G
8.9

Match Events

44'
K. De Bruyne
46'
D. Lukébakio← Y. Carrasco
46'
J. Doku← A. Onana
46'
L. Trossard← K. De Bruyne
46'
A. Witsel← W. Faes
46'
O. Mangala← J. Bakayoko
46'
T. Castagne← T. Meunier
61'
V. Jovović← D. Camaj
61'
M. Bakić← E. Kuč
63'
Miloš Brnović
70'
M. Vukčević← M. Vešović
71'
N. Kosović← S. Jovetić
87'
S. Mugoša← N. Krstović
87'
D. Bakić← M. Osmajić
88'
Miloš Brnović
88'
Miloš Brnović
90+2'
Stefan Mugoša
90+3'
L. TrossardPenalty

Possession

70%Belgium

Shots

20Belgium

Pass accuracy

54%Belgium

Statistics

BelgiumMontenegro
Overview
70%Possession30%
20Total Shots10
9Corners5
7Fouls14
Shots
20Total Shots10
10On Target2
4Off Target5
6Blocked3
13Inside Box7
7Outside Box3
Passing
70%Possession30%
646Total Passes268
584Accurate Passes209
90%Pass Accuracy78%
Goalkeeping
2Saves8
Discipline
7Fouls14
0Yellow Cards3
0Red Cards1
3Offsides1

Match Recap: Belgium vs Montenegro

Belgium beat Montenegro 2-0 in Friendlies on June 5, 2024.

Goals: K. De Bruyne (44'), L. Trossard (90+3' pen).

Belgium controlled possession (70%) and registered 20 shots to 10.

The match was played at Stade Roi Baudouin in Brussel.