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Belgium vs Luxembourg — Friendlies 2026

Belgium
Belgium
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Luxembourg
Luxembourg
L. Trossard 81'
R. Lukaku 57', 42' (pen)
6/8/2024FriendliesFriendlies · Friendlies 1Stade Roi Baudouin

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Belgium68%
×Draw21%
Luxembourg11%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Belgium
1.91
Luxembourg
0.61

Belgium creates 213% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 11 away

creates per match

Belgium
2.27
Luxembourg
0.55

allows per match

Belgium
0.67
Luxembourg
1.55

finishing

Belgium+0.00on par
Luxembourg+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Belgium ↓

Luxembourg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–15%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–19%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–015%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–16%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Belgium or draw
89%
Belgium or Luxembourg
79%
Draw or Luxembourg
32%

Winning margin

Belgium wins by 2+
42%
Luxembourg wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Belgium 1+ goals
85%
Belgium 2+ goals
57%
Belgium 3+ goals
30%
Luxembourg 1+ goals
46%
Luxembourg 2+ goals
13%
Luxembourg 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Belgium (draw refunded)
86%
Luxembourg (draw refunded)
14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Belgium at home — creates 2.27, concedes 0.67 · 15 matches

Luxembourg away — creates 0.55, concedes 1.55 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Belgium attack 2.27 + Luxembourg defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.91

Luxembourg attack 0.55 + Belgium defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Belgium scores more
68%
level
21%
Luxembourg scores more
11%

Belgium at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Belgium will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

22
J. DokuBelgiumBelgium · D
8.9

Match Events

16'
M. De Cuyper← T. Meunier
42'
R. LukakuPenalty
46'
A. Vranckx← A. Witsel
54'
V. Selimović← C. Martins
57'
R. Lukaku↳ J. Doku
65'
J. Bakayoko← T. Castagne
65'
Y. Carrasco← J. Doku
65'
Z. Debast← A. Onana
66'
Eldin Dzogovic
73'
C. De Ketelaere← K. De Bruyne
79'
F. Lohei← L. Jans
81'
L. Trossard↳ W. Faes
86'
D. Jonathans← E. Džogović
86'
S. Ikene← C. Philipps
86'
J. Videira← G. Rodrigues

Possession

72%Belgium

Shots

27Belgium

Pass accuracy

54%Belgium

Statistics

BelgiumLuxembourg
Overview
72%Possession28%
27Total Shots1
11Corners1
7Fouls8
Shots
27Total Shots1
9On Target0
13Off Target1
5Blocked0
19Inside Box0
8Outside Box1
Passing
72%Possession28%
696Total Passes276
636Accurate Passes216
91%Pass Accuracy78%
Goalkeeping
0Saves6
Discipline
7Fouls8
0Yellow Cards1
1Offsides1

Match Recap: Belgium vs Luxembourg

Belgium beat Luxembourg 3-0 in Friendlies on June 8, 2024.

Goals: R. Lukaku (42' pen, 57'), L. Trossard (81').

Belgium controlled possession (72%) and registered 27 shots to 1.

The match was played at Stade Roi Baudouin in Brussel.