Belgium 2–0 England: Result & Stats

Belgium

FT

2 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

England

Dries Mertens 23'

Youri Tielemans 10'

11/15/2020

UEFA Nations League · League A - 5King Power at Den Dreef Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Belgium46%

×Draw24%

England29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BelgiumExpected goals in this matchEngland

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.64

1.25

Belgium

1.64

England

1.25

Belgium creates 31% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 11 away

2.54

creates per match

1.18

1.31

allows per match

0.73

creates per match

Belgium

2.54

England

1.18

allows per match

Belgium

1.31

England

0.73

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Belgium+0.00on par

England+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Belgium ↓

England →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Belgium or draw

71%

Belgium or England

76%

Draw or England

54%

Winning margin

Belgium wins by 2+

24%

England wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Belgium 1+ goals

81%

Belgium 2+ goals

49%

Belgium 3+ goals

23%

England 1+ goals

71%

England 2+ goals

36%

England 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Belgium (draw refunded)

61%

England (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Belgium at home — creates 2.54, concedes 1.31 · 13 matches

England away — creates 1.18, concedes 0.73 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Belgium attack 2.54 + England defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 1.64

England attack 1.18 + Belgium defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Belgium scores more

46%

level

24%

England scores more

29%

Belgium at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Belgium will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

3

Jason Denayer

Belgium · D

7.7

Match Events

10'

Youri Tielemans↳ Romelu Lukaku

23'

Dries Mertens

38'

Bukayo Saka← Ben Chilwell

44'

Axel Witsel

46'

Harry Winks← Jordan Henderson

51'

Toby Alderweireld

54'

Thomas Meunier

69'

Dominic Calvert-Lewin← Mason Mount

70'

Jadon Sancho← Kieran Trippier

83'

Dennis Praet← Dries Mertens

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BelgiumEngland

Overview

45%Possession55%

8Total Shots16

1Corners5

15Fouls8

Shots

8Total Shots16

3On Target3

4Off Target7

1Blocked6

2Inside Box9

6Outside Box7

Passing

45%Possession55%

487Total Passes588

407Accurate Passes514

84%Pass Accuracy87%

Goalkeeping

2Saves1

Discipline

15Fouls8

3Yellow Cards0

0Offsides3