Belgium 1–0 Croatia: Result & Stats | Friendlies

Belgium

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Croatia

R. Lukaku 38'

6/6/2021

Friendlies · Friendlies 1Stade Roi Baudouin

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Belgium56%

×Draw23%

Croatia21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BelgiumExpected goals in this matchCroatia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.84

1.04

Belgium

1.84

Croatia

1.04

Belgium creates 77% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 12 away

2.27

creates per match

1.42

0.67

allows per match

1.42

creates per match

Belgium

2.27

Croatia

1.42

allows per match

Belgium

0.67

Croatia

1.42

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Belgium+0.00on par

Croatia+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Belgium ↓

Croatia →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Belgium or draw

79%

Belgium or Croatia

77%

Draw or Croatia

44%

Winning margin

Belgium wins by 2+

32%

Croatia wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Belgium 1+ goals

84%

Belgium 2+ goals

55%

Belgium 3+ goals

28%

Croatia 1+ goals

65%

Croatia 2+ goals

28%

Croatia 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Belgium (draw refunded)

73%

Croatia (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Belgium at home — creates 2.27, concedes 0.67 · 15 matches

Croatia away — creates 1.42, concedes 1.42 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Belgium attack 2.27 + Croatia defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.84

Croatia attack 1.42 + Belgium defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Belgium scores more

56%

level

23%

Croatia scores more

21%

Belgium at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Belgium will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

38'

R. Lukaku

46'

T. Vermaelen← J. Vertonghen

46'

J. Gvardiol← B. Barišić

61'

A. Kramarić← A. Rebić

61'

N. Vlašić← M. Kovačić

61'

M. Pašalić← L. Modrić

68'

H. Vanaken← D. Mertens

70'

J. Brekalo← B. Petković

71'

T. Hazard← N. Chadli

80'

M. Oršić← I. Perišić

81'

J. Doku← Y. Carrasco

82'

E. Hazard← L. Dendoncker

Possession

Shots

Statistics

BelgiumCroatia

Overview

53%Possession47%

9Total Shots5

10Corners5

5Fouls13

Shots

9Total Shots5

4On Target3

5Off Target2

Passing

53%Possession47%

Goalkeeping

3Saves3

Discipline

5Fouls13

0Yellow Cards0

0Red Cards0

0Offsides5