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Belgium vs Costa Rica — Friendlies 2026

Belgium
Belgium
FT
4 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Costa Rica
Costa Rica
M. Batshuayi 64'
R. Lukaku 50', 42'
D. Mertens 31'
B. Ruiz 24'
6/11/2018FriendliesFriendlies · Friendlies 1Roi Baudouin

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Belgium70%
×Draw19%
Costa Rica12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Belgium
2.13
Costa Rica
0.73

Belgium creates 192% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 24 away

creates per match

Belgium
2.27
Costa Rica
0.79

allows per match

Belgium
0.67
Costa Rica
2.00

finishing

Belgium+0.00on par
Costa Rica+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Belgium ↓

Costa Rica →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–14%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–19%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–110%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–17%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–14%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (13%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Belgium or draw
88%
Belgium or Costa Rica
81%
Draw or Costa Rica
30%

Winning margin

Belgium wins by 2+
45%
Costa Rica wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Belgium 1+ goals
88%
Belgium 2+ goals
63%
Belgium 3+ goals
35%
Costa Rica 1+ goals
52%
Costa Rica 2+ goals
17%
Costa Rica 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Belgium (draw refunded)
86%
Costa Rica (draw refunded)
14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Belgium at home — creates 2.27, concedes 0.67 · 15 matches

Costa Rica away — creates 0.79, concedes 2.00 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Belgium attack 2.27 + Costa Rica defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.13

Costa Rica attack 0.79 + Belgium defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

Belgium scores more
70%
level
19%
Costa Rica scores more
12%

Belgium at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Belgium will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

24'
B. Ruiz
31'
D. Mertens↳ E. Hazard
42'
R. Lukaku↳ D. Mertens
45'
Giancarlo González
46'
N. Chadli← T. Meunier
46'
J. Venegas← M. Ureña
46'
F. Calvo← B. Oviedo
50'
R. Lukaku↳ N. Chadli
52'
M. Batshuayi← D. Mertens
62'
D. Guzmán← C. Bolaños
64'
M. Batshuayi↳ R. Lukaku
65'
T. Hazard← R. Lukaku
66'
L. Dendoncker← D. Boyata
66'
I. Smith← C. Gamboa
66'
J. Campbell← B. Ruiz
70'
M. Dembélé← E. Hazard
71'
Y. Tielemans← K. De Bruyne
76'
R. Azofeifa← C. Borges

Possession

67%Belgium

Shots

15Belgium

Statistics

BelgiumCosta
Overview
67%Possession33%
15Total Shots2
9Corners1
5Fouls12
Shots
15Total Shots2
9On Target1
6Off Target1
Passing
67%Possession33%
Goalkeeping
0Saves5
Discipline
5Fouls12
0Yellow Cards1
0Red Cards0
7Offsides5

Match Recap: Belgium vs Costa Rica

Belgium beat Costa Rica 4-1 in Friendlies on June 11, 2018.

Goals: B. Ruiz (24'), D. Mertens (31'), R. Lukaku (42', 50'), M. Batshuayi (64').

Belgium controlled possession (67%) and registered 15 shots to 2.

The match was played at Roi Baudouin in Brussels.