Belgium U23 W 1–3 Sweden U23 W: Result & Stats

Belgium U23 W

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Sweden U23 W

L. Petry 57'

J. Ragnarsson 88'

W. Leidhammar 84'

E. Wangerheim 45'

3/2/2026

Friendlies Women · Friendly International Women

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Belgium U23 W25%

×Draw26%

Sweden U23 W49%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Belgium U23 WExpected goals in this matchSweden U23 W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.00

1.50

Belgium U23 W

1.00

Sweden U23 W

1.50

Sweden U23 W creates 50% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 8 away

0.75

creates per match

2.00

1.00

allows per match

1.25

creates per match

Belgium U23 W

0.75

Sweden U23 W

2.00

allows per match

Belgium U23 W

1.00

Sweden U23 W

1.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Belgium U23 W+0.00on par

Sweden U23 W+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Belgium U23 W ↓

Sweden U23 W →

0–08%

0–112%

0–29%

0–35%

0–42%

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2–04%

2–16%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Belgium U23 W or draw

51%

Belgium U23 W or Sweden U23 W

74%

Draw or Sweden U23 W

75%

Winning margin

Belgium U23 W wins by 2+

Sweden U23 W wins by 2+

25%

Team goals

Belgium U23 W 1+ goals

63%

Belgium U23 W 2+ goals

26%

Belgium U23 W 3+ goals

Sweden U23 W 1+ goals

78%

Sweden U23 W 2+ goals

44%

Sweden U23 W 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Belgium U23 W (draw refunded)

34%

Sweden U23 W (draw refunded)

66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Belgium U23 W at home — creates 0.75, concedes 1.00 · 4 matches

Sweden U23 W away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.25 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Belgium U23 W attack 0.75 + Sweden U23 W defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.00

Sweden U23 W attack 2.00 + Belgium U23 W defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 49%?"

Belgium U23 W scores more

25%

level

26%

Sweden U23 W scores more

49%

Sweden U23 W at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Sweden U23 W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

45'

57'

84'

88'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff